“November data highlighted a sustained acceleration in
production growth across the U.S. manufacturing sector, and the latest upturn
was the fastest since early-2015. Higher levels of output were supported by a
continued rebound in new business volumes, with strong domestic demand helping
to offset subdued export sales growth.” - Markit
Economics. Press release at…
Commentary and analysis from Advisor Perspectives at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 2213 at the
close.
-VIX was down about 0.7% to 12.34 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.37%.
See Wednesday’s blog for Bullish and Bearish indications;
not much changed today during light-volume, holiday trading
Short-term I am bearish/neutral at this point, but I am
not taking any short positions for now; it’s not a great time to be short;
Holidays are bullish and it’s also near the beginning of the month and that’s a
bullish time too. Further, I’m not a big fan of trading against the trend - I’d
like to see some more negative signs.
I’m guessing Monday will be down when the Pros get back,
but my short-term numbers aren’t screaming sell (more like suggesting sell) so I’ll
wait.
Long-term I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a
conservative-retiree allocation) – I remain “hold-my-nose” bullish. For now I think the long-term trend remains
up.
TRADING PORTFOLIO (Small-% of the total portfolio)*
2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO) Established 15 Nov. SOLD 22 Nov.
Gain: +2.3%
NET: +8.2%
*I am not really happy doing this much trading, but I
need to rebuild the trading balance after holding my shorts too long after the
February correction. (I really should
follow my own indicators. My system is smarter than I am!)
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 59.1 %. (57.2 % yesterday.) A number above 50% is usually
BULLISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: rose to 52.7%.
(A value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: rose to +179 (percentage
calculation method adjusted to fit McClellan’s values).
-New-highs minus new-lows: +206 (It was +228 yesterday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +10. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 10
each day.
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday the Sentiment, Volume and VIX indicators were
neutral. The Price indicator was positive. Overall the long-term indicator remained
Neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
