THIS IS THE NEWS
& A PORTION OF THE ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY’S (11/23/2016) POST THAT SOMEHOW
DIDN’T GET UPLOADED. (I plan to
reprimand the webmaster - me).
PAYROLL CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“The number of Americans who applied for unemployment
benefits in mid-November leapt 18,000 to 251,000, but the increase comes just
one week after initial claims fell to 43-year low in a reflection of a sharply
improved labor market.” Story at…
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (CNBC)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods rebounded
in October, driven by rising demand for machinery and a range of other
equipment, the latest indication of an acceleration in economic growth early in
the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that non-defense
capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business
spending plans, rose 0.4 percent…” Story at…
NEW HOME SALES (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans purchased new homes in October, but
sales are still much stronger this year than in 2015 — a positive sign for the housing
market. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that new-home sales
fell 1.9 percent last month…” Story at…
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Forbes)
“…the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
rose to 93.8, or 8.2 points above pre-election readings. The consumer survey
augurs well for the beginning of the all-important holiday shopping season…”
Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week after three
straight weeks of builds as imports dropped and refineries hiked output, while
gasoline inventories rose sharply amid weak demand, U.S. Energy Information Administration
data showed on Wednesday.” Story at…
FOMC MINUTES (Fortune.com)
“According to the minutes, most Fed officials said at
their November 2nd meeting that it would be ‘appropriate to raise the target
range for the federal funds rate relatively soon.’ Furthermore, a significant
number of FOMC members think the move should be imminent.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.1% to 2205 at
the close.
-VIX was up about 0.2% to 12.43 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.36%.
BEARISH INDICATIONS
-The 10-dMA of closing Tick yesterday was 387. A number
over 300 is an indication of an overbought market according to Tom McClellan.
(Closing tick is the sum of last trades of the day {up +1 or down -1} for all
NYSE stocks.)
- The Advance/Decline ratio is still indicating
overbought.
- The S&P 500 is very near its upper Bollinger Band.
- RSI is overbought at 88 (14-day SMA). That’s 2-days in
a row. (Over 80 usually means trouble.)
- Advancing volume appears to have peaked in the short
run and is now headed down.
- The SUM of 16-indicators has turned down. Wednesday the
sum of all indicators was +1 down from +6 yesterday.
- My Money trend indicator has topped out and is
declining.
- My topping indicator was so close to a sell yesterday
that I may as well interpret it as a bearish indication.
BULLISH INDICATIONS
-New-high new-low data is bullish. This is a stat that is slow to turn so it’s
not telling us much now.
-Sentiment has fallen to 54% on a 5-dMA basis. On a
standard deviation this is actually currently bullish, but I use sentiment for
major corrections not day-to-day stuff. As recently as 14 November Sentiment
signaled SELL so I am not convinced Sentiment is Bullish.
Short-term I am bearish/neutral at this point. Depending
on Friday’s action I may take a short position on Friday. It’s not a great time
to be short though; Holidays can be bullish before or after the Holiday and
also the beginning of the month is coming up and that’s a bullish time too.
