The surge in consumer confidence seen
since the presidential election continued in late December, according to a
report from the University of Michigan released Friday. The final December reading on
consumer sentiment rose
to 98.2 in December, up both from the preliminary reading of 98 earlier in the
month and November’s final reading of 93.8…” Story at…
NEW HOME SALES
“New U.S. single-family home sales rose [to]
their highest level in four months, likely as expectations of higher mortgage
rates drew buyers into the market. The Commerce Department said on Friday new
home sales increased 5.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
592,000 units last month.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.1%
to 2264 at the close
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 11.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped
to 2.54%.
“If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy?” - Sam Stovall, investment
strategist for Standard & Poor’s
Signals still suggest a short-term top
and I continue to expect to see the Index fall 4-5% from its high. Money Trend and
the SUM of 16-Indicators are both falling hard. I also noticed that Wednesday
was a high-down-volume day and that can be a bad sign for the bulls especially
if we see another one soon.
Long-term I’m fully invested at 50% in
stocks (a conservative-retiree allocation).
The long-term trend remains up.
CURRENT RANKING OF 11 ETFs (Ranked
Daily)*
#1 RANK for the past 31-days: Financial
Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF).
#2 RANK: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
(XLE)
#3 RANK: iShares Russell 2000 – Small
Cap (IWM)
The # 2 and #3 ETFs switched again.
While the XLF remains ranked #1 using the methodology explained at the link
below, IWM is outperforming the others over the past 3-weeks on a percentage
gained basis.
*For background on the ETF ranking
system see NTSM Page at…
TRADING PORTFOLIO (Small-% of the total
portfolio)*
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established
6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 16
Dec.
NET: +8.7%
Market
internals improved slightly because advancers improved on a 10-day basis.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday the Sentiment and Volume
indicators were neutral. The Price and VIX indicators were positive. Overall
the long-term indicator switched to BUY. The important buy-signal was last
August and September. The buy-signal now
just reflects that market conditions have been positive recently. Since I think the market is near a short-term
top, I don’t see this as a good time to buy.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES)
ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative
retiree allocation.
