CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (USA Today)
“Consumer confidence reached another
post-recession high in December, as the stock market soared to a new record
after the election of Donald Trump and the outlook for the job market
remains robust. The Conference Board said Tuesday its
consumer confidence index increased to 113.7 in December…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2%
to 2269.
-VIX rose about 5% to 11.99. (The
options Boys seem worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose
to 2.56%.
“If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy?” - Sam Stovall, investment
strategist for Standard & Poor’s
Sentiment is now giving a Bearish signal
with a high 80%-Bulls reading. In
addition there is also a Low percentage of Bears and that also is an extreme
reading that is bearish. The %-Bulls signal is a long-term signal that occurs
somewhat rarely since it is based on a standard deviation comparison to the
extremes seen in the dot.com bubble. In theory, Sentiment is signaling a Major
Top. Without other long-term signals concurring, it will not trigger a “sell”
on the long–term NTSM system. Sentiment is not tradable by itself and it must
be confirmed by other signals
Short-term not much has changed. Signals
still suggest a short-term top and I continue to expect to see the Index fall
4-5% from its high.
Long-term I’m fully invested at 50% in
stocks (a conservative-retiree allocation).
The long-term trend remains up.
CURRENT RANKING OF 11 ETFs (Ranked
Daily)*
#1 RANK for the past 31-days: Financial
Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF).
#2 RANK: iShares Russell 2000 – Small
Cap (IWM)
#3 RANK: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
(XLE) The # 2 and #3 ETFs switched again. While the XLF remains ranked #1 using
the methodology explained at the link below, IWM is outperforming the others
over the past 3-weeks on a percentage gained basis.
*For background on the ETF ranking
system see NTSM Page at…
TRADING PORTFOLIO (Small-% of the total
portfolio)*
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established
6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established
16 Dec.
NET: +8.7%
MARKET INTERNALS:
NEUTRAL
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday Volume indicator was neutral.
The Price and VIX indicators were positive. The Sentiment indicator was
negative.
NTSM LONG TERM
INDICATOR: HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES)
ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative
retiree allocation.
