“The productivity of American workers rose just modestly
in the spring, extending a worrisome issue that has persisted throughout this
expansion. Productivity grew at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the April-June
quarter, slightly better than a scant 0.1 percent rate of increase in the first
quarter…” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Oil Price.com)
“The decline in U.S. comparative inventories since
February is the most significant oil market development since prices collapsed
three years ago. It means that U.S. demand has exceeded supply for most of the
last 5 months. The main cause is lower net imports, not higher domestic
consumption, and that is probably not sustainable.” Story at….
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 1pt to 2474.
-VIX was up about 1% to 11.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.251%.
I wrote yesterday that the dip buyers might move in
Wednesday; did they ever! The S&P 500 went straight up from about 2:30 on
to the close. So far though, there has been a slow and steady decline in market
internals and the indicators I track, at least in the short-term as follows:
-The sum of my 17-Indicators is still falling sharply on
a smoothed long-term basis and has dropped into negative territory so the
indicators I track are still getting
more bearish each day.
-The 10-day measure of advancing stocks was 46.7%
indicating that less than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been advancing over
the last 10-days. That’s another bearish
sign.
-Advancing volume is falling too and on a 10-day basis
only 45% of the volume has been advancing.
I think at this point we have to get Bearish in the short-term.
Longer-term, I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more if
the numbers continue to deteriorate, but I remain fully invested. There isn’t
any news now that signals a bear market and long-term indicators remain
neutral. A short-term pullback seems more likely now.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Today, Aerospace and Defense (ITA) remained #1. Avoid
XLE; its 120-day moving average is still falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
I take a portion of my cash and apply it strategically to
improve returns in cash. My short-term trading has never been about
get-rich-quick. I haven’t been doing much recently; I don’t have time to watch
and I think short-term trading takes a watchful eye.
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major
bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established.
Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is
truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's
errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, Price is positive; Sentiment, Volume, &
VIX indicators were neutral. (With VIX
recently below 10 for a couple of days (May and June, and now July), VIX may be
prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it
may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the
Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.)
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday,
24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
