“U.S. filings for unemployment benefits rose by the most
in six weeks while still hovering near historically low levels that indicate a
tight job market, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.” Story at…
PHILADELPHIA FED (MarketWatch)
“The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to 34.4
in May from 23.3 in April, the regional district of the central bank said
Thursday. That was well above the economist consensus for a reading of 21 and
the highest reading in a year.” Story at…
LEI (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in April to
109.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in March, and a 0.7
percent increase in February. "April's increase and continued uptrend in
the U.S. LEI suggest solid growth should continue in the second half of 2018.
However, the LEI's six-month growth rate has recently moderated somewhat,
suggesting growth is unlikely to strongly accelerate," said Ataman Ozyildirim,
Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "
Press release at…
MARKET REPORT / ANLAYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2720.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 13.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.112%.
Nearly 60% of the DOW 30 stocks and 71% of the ETF’s I track
were up over the last 10-days. That’s a fairly bullish sign and suggests this
rally can continue.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators rose from +7 to +8, while
the 10-day smoothed version improved from +33 to +49. Indicators remain bullish and keep getting
more so. For a quick recap of the indicators see yesterday’s blog; not much has
changed.
I remain bullish in the near term. I think we’ll make new
highs, but of course there are no guarantees.
Longer term, who knows? The bull could go for another year or so or end
tomorrow. We need to be vigilant.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per se,
momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if
the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Volume and VIX Indicators were positive; Price and
Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a POSITIVE indication. I am
somewhat leery of the VIX indicator, but I tend to trust it for a falling VIX.
