Monday, March 2, 2020

Bounce Time

I am projecting lower volume on the day, but today will probably finish as an up-day. This means we can’t infer that selling has dried up; rather we see buy-the-dip action.

We need to see lower volume on a down-day to suggest slowed selling. It looks more like the appropriate action is to sell into the rally a couple of days from now. For now, we may guess that snap-back buying could push the markets up, perhaps in the range of 4-6% before we retest the low. Since there is still so much unknown about the virus impact on the economy, it is hard to imagine that the Index will streak higher without a re-test of the low.

Bottom line: I won’t be buying today.