“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
"The extent to which the president, President Trump,
for months leading up to January 6 spread the notion that the election had been
stolen or that the election was rigged was a lie and people need to understand
that. We need to make sure that we as Republicans are the party of truth that
we are being honest about what really did happen in 2020 so we actually have a
chance to win in 2022 and win the White House back in 2024." - Liz
Cheney, US Republican Representative, Wyoming.
This country was founded by the bayonet; it survives by
the ballot. Those who falsely disparage the
honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the foundations of our nation. –
Meade Stith.
BOND CEF (CLOSED END FUNDS) A-D LINE CONFIRMING HIGHER
PRICE HIGHS (McClellan Financial Publications)
“Bond closed end funds trade a lot more like stocks than
like T-Bonds. They are derivative instruments, and thus more sensitive to
the vicissitudes of liquidity than the big-cap stocks which drive the
indices. If liquidity starts to dry up, these issues tend to be the first
to show it. And they are not showing any sign of trouble now, so the
message is that liquidity is fine and the stock market ought to be able to
continue moving higher. There may be ordinary stumbles and corrections along
the way, but when liquidity is strong the market can better absorb those
punches and continue moving higher.” Tom McClellan, Editor, The McClellan
Market Report
SENATOR BEN SASSE HAS ME CHEERING (MishTalk)
“The Nebraska GOP threatens to censure Senator Sasse over
Trump. Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, Sasse delivers a message you
should take to heart...
Notable Excerpts
-When Melissa and I ran four years ago we pledged to
put the constitution ahead of party politics. You gave me standing
ovations.
-My election night speech was a simple promise that I
would always vote my conscious even if it might be against the partisan
stream. You cheered.
-Now, many of you are hacked off that I condemned Trump's
lies that led to a riot.
-Let's be clear. The anger in the state party has never
been about me violating principle or abandoning conservative policy. I am one
of the most conservative voters in the Senate.
-The anger has always simply been about me not bending a
knee to one guy.
-But my disagreements with Trump have never been
personal. They have always been about genuine affection for the constitutional
order, something every American regardless of party should share.
-January 6 is going to leave a scar. For 220 years one of
the most beautiful things about America has been a peaceful transfer of power.
But what we saw three weeks ago was ugly, shameful mob violence to disrupt a
Constitutionally-mandated meeting of Congress to affirm that peaceful transfer
of power.
-It happened because the president lied to you. He lied
about the election results for 60 days. Despite losing 60 straight court
challenges, many of them handed down by Trump-appointed judges.
-He lied by saying the vice president could violate his
constitutional oath and declare a new winner. That wasn't true.
-He then riled a mob that attacked the Capitol, many
chanting "hang Pence".
-If that president was a Democrat we both know how you
would respond. But because he had Republican behind his name, you are defending
him.
-Personality cults aren't conservative. Conspiracy
theories aren't conservative. Lying that an election has been stolen isn't
conservative.
-Acting like politics is a religion isn't
conservative,
-You are welcome to censure me again, but let's be clear
about why this is happening. It's because I still believe, like you used
to, that politics isn't about the weird worship of one dude.”
For a video of the speech and additional commentary,
see...
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/politics/senator-ben-sasse-has-me-cheering-please-listen-why
My cmt: I supported Trump for four years, until he
started lying about the election. Our Democracy depends on free and honest
elections. With his false claims of election fraud and attempts to subvert the
electoral process, Trump has trampled on the Constitution, dishonored his
Presidency and damaged the democratic foundations of the Country. His actions
as a sitting President were treasonous. Why anyone would continue to support
that son-of-a bitch is beyond me. I think the Republican Party is committing
suicide.
I have previously linked articles that debunked Trump’s
claims. See...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2020/12/election-security-officials-no-evidence.html
and...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2020/12/one-for-ages-big-bubble-fosback.html
WHY LOU DOBBS SHOW WAS CANCELED BY FOX (CNN)
“Fox News' official reason for canceling Lou Dobbs' show -- a post-election programing adjustment -- doesn't quite add up. Dobbs was the highest-rated host on Fox Business. He often doubled his lead-in's ratings. Although Fox isn't saying, the timing of Dobbs' cancellation Friday appears to be no coincidence: It took place 24 hours after Dobbs and Fox were named in a $2.7 billion defamation lawsuit filed by voting technology company Smartmatic.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/07/media/lou-dobbs-fox-reliable/index.html
My cmt: Dobbs has been touting the “stolen election” lie
and blaming tampered election machines. These guys, including Hannity and
others, should be charged with Sedition for their stolen election mantra.
Democracy exists explicitly due to free and fair elections; to lie about it is
to incite a portion of the electorate to revolution. President John Adams would
have put Hannity and his cronies in jail, as he did to yellow-journalists
during his administration.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 5:30pm Monday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose
about 0.7% to 3916.
-VIX rose about 4% to 21.64.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury was little changed at 1.168%.
There have been 6 up-days in a
row. Holly-Moley! We should see a down-day Tuesday, but maybe the markets will
go up forever. Still, a correction from here is not too likely. Bollinger Bands
are at their upper-trend line, nearly an overbought indication, but RSI is not
overbought. I discount the Bollinger Bands indication since I use RSI and
Bollinger Bands together.
The S&P 500 is 15.8% above its 200-dMA (Sell point is
12%.); when Sentiment is considered, the signal is also bearish. Markets are
ignoring this, so we may as well ignore it too, for the time being.
I don’t see many top Indicators warning of a top – only
the % above the 200-dMA. Since the markets had been ignoring that indicator, it
looks like we can go higher.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +5 to +6 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); but the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -55 to -43. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. VIX, Volume, Sentiment & Price are neutral.
I am still conservatively positioned, but with the FED
pumping liquidity and Biden pledging a huge stimulus bill passing, I am tired
of fighting the FED. I’ll be increasing stock positions soon unless we see some
more signs of a top. (I have been waiting for a down-day, but that hasn’t
worked out either!)
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
My current stock allocation is
about 30% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested
in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 30% is a very conservative position
that I re-evaluate daily.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that has left me under-invested on
the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, 80% would not be out of the question.
