Leading Economic Indicators ... Jobless Claims ... Philadelphia FED Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“It was my understanding that the president made this decision [to install fake electors]” - Joshua Findlay, former Trump campaign associate general counsel.
 
“[In] A new Monmouth University poll... national survey of 910 voters, 47% of voters said they would definitely or probably support Biden, while just 40% said they would back Trump.”
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board via prnewswire)
"The U.S. LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction... June's data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024.” Press release at... 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-fell-further-in-june-301882159.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week with the labor market continuing to cruise along despite higher interest rates intended to cool hiring. U.S. applications for jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 228,000 for the week ending July 15...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-claims-fall-labor-market-continues-flash-101517839
 
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (Mornningstar)
“The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity inched up to negative 13.5 in July from negative 13.7 in the previous month. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions. This is the 11th straight negative reading... “manufacturing is still struggling under the weight of higher rates and tighter credit conditions...” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230720431/philadelphia-feds-manufacturing-gauge-stuck-in-negative-territory-for-11th-straight-month
 
THE SUMMER OF ACCOUNTABILITY IS HERE – AND NOT JUST FOR TRUMP (CNN)
“...so far, almost no one has faced real consequences for the conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election, which began well before the attack on the Capitol. That is, until now. In Michigan, the state’s Attorney General Dana Nessel and her team of prosecutors unveiled criminal charges on Tuesday against 16 people who signed and formally submitted certificates to the National Archives and the US Senate claiming they were valid presidential electors for Donald Trump, even though Joe Biden had won the state by more than 150,000 votes. The documents falsely declared the signers the “duly elected and qualified” electors from Michigan. The idea was to get then-Vice President Mike Pence to illegally refuse to certify Biden’s win...
...This is a critical moment. What happened between Election Day 2020 and January 6 was a conspiracy to overturn a free and fair election and keep Trump in power. It was carefully planned, then carried out, step by step, in multiple states. And we can’t let it happen again. The way to make sure it doesn’t is to push for concrete consequences for everyone who was involved.” - Joanna Lydgate, former chief deputy attorney general of Massachusetts. Christine Todd Whitman, former governor of New Jersey and administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under President George W. Bush. Commentary at...
Opinion: The summer of accountability is here — and not just for Trump | CNN
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.7% to 4535.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.853%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 387-days.
The S&P 500 is 12 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June 2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Investors bought Utilities hard today.  The XLU was up 1.8% while the S&P 500 fell 0.7%.  That sort of action suggests investors are concerned about the markets, and probably the economy, and are running to safe investments.
 
Taiwan Semi Conductor (TSMC) missed on revenues today. They commented that AI would not make up for an expected, cyclical slowdown.  This upset the market today and hurt the entire technology sector.
 
This news may be the trigger that brings that retreat I have been anticipating for a month or so. The Index remains stretched too far above its 200-dMA and too far ahead of breadth. 
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +5 to +7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +29 to +42. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are positive; VIX is neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a decline of around 5-6% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record continues!)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.