Housing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
HOUSING STARTS (Yahoo Finance)
“Housing starts decreased 0.5% last month to a 1.35
million annualized rate, according to government data released Friday, after a
big rebound in August... The number of overall building permits, a proxy for
future construction, fell 2.9% to a 1.43 million annualized rate... Even with
the rise in single-family home construction, the rate is down from the furious
pace seen in late 2021 and early 2022, when mortgage rates were close to 3%...”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-starts-ease-decline-130155434.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5865.
-VIX declined about 6% to 18.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.083%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs
and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +11 (11 more
Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +11 is bullish and the 10-dMA
of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remains bullish. I
follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Friday. 8% of issues on the NYSE made new highs today
and that’s a good number suggesting that even if there was a correction (and I’m
not predicting one) it would be less than 10%.
Statistical analysis of the daily moves on the S&P
500 still show that markets are too calm.
This indicator suggests a top in less than 20-days. This does not mean
that a major top is coming. It might simply portend a normal 3-5% retreat. The
last time this signal occurred was 10-days before the top of 16 July; the
market declined 8.5% after that top.
I won’t worry until the S&P 500 chart looks more
bearish. For now, it appears that markets can keep running higher.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
