Leading Economic Indicators ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"The one thing that doesn't abide by majority rule is a person's conscience." – Atticus Finch.
 
CLIMATE CHANGE SHOCKING IMPACT ON MENTAL HEALTH OF YOUNG PEOPLE (MSNBC)
“A new study released shows climate change is having a negative impact on a large portion of young adults’ mental health. It says nearly 60% of 16 to 25-year-olds feel anxious, powerless, or angry about the state of Earth’s climate. Study co-author Dr. Lise Van Susteren and MSNBC medical contributor Dr. Vin Gupta dig into the study and explain why action should be taken immediately.” Video at...
New study shows climate change has shocking impact on mental health of young people | Watch
My cmt: Maybe it’s because the press hypes Climate Change every 5minutes?
 
“We look historically. What we’ve observed so far: There are no long-term trends in hurricanes or more generally tropical cyclones, as they’re called technically. And I think many people find that as a surprise. Over the last, roughly almost a century, we see no detectable trends in hurricanes. We do see for about the last 70 years some intensification of precipitation over the land. And we see that in the US rainfall has gotten more intense, but not necessarily more plentiful, in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the Northwest.
In terms of record-high temperatures in the US, they’re no more common today than they were 100 years ago. Yes, sea level rise globally has been accelerating for the last several decades, but it was also doing the same thing in the 1930s when, in fact, human influences were much smaller. So a lot of what we’re seeing can be put down to natural variability, or at least we need to show that it’s not natural variability. And that’s pretty hard without long-term and precise records...” - Steven Koonin, PhD. From...
https://www.aei.org/economics/what-do-we-know-about-climate-change-my-long-read-qa-with-steven-koonin/
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September... “Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 5854.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.37.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.19%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – Sold half this position 10/21.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +5 is mildly bullish and the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) remains bullish. I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.
 
Statistical analysis of the daily moves on the S&P 500 continues to show that markets are too calm.  This indicator suggests a top in less than 20-days. This does not mean that a major top is coming. It might simply portend a normal 3-5% retreat. The last time this signal occurred was 10-days before the top of 16 July; the market declined 8.5% after that top.
 
I won’t worry until the S&P 500 chart looks more bearish. For now, it appears that markets can keep running higher.
 
Concerns over the election may be troubling markets, but I sure don’t know that either of these clowns is worth voting for, so who do the markets want? Neither has mentioned the National Debt. Unbelievable. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.