ISM Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®... “U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in November, but at a slower rate compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak but may be moderating, output declined again, and inputs stayed accommodative.” Press release at... 
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6047.
-VIX declined about 1% to 13.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.196%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +9 is still a bullish sign, especially since the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher today. The overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Monday.  About 5% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That demonstrates a decent advance. It’s another confirmation that markets look good and can continue higher. If a pullback were to occur now on the S&P 500 (and ‘m not predicting one) it is likely that it would be in the range of 3-5%. That would be a normal pullback to around the 50-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.