... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6050.
-VIX declined about 0.3% to 13.30.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.226%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) remained to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators – yesterday’s numbers changed due to late data).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Not much different than yesterday:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8, is still a bullish sign, especially since the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher today. The overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Tuesday as it did Monday.  4.5% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That demonstrates a decent advance. It’s another confirmation that markets look good and can continue higher. If a pullback were to occur now on the S&P 500 (and ‘m not predicting one) it is likely that it would be in the range of 3-5%. That would be a normal pullback to around the 50-dMA. There was a new Bear sign today...
 
8 of the last 10 trading days have been up-days.  That should bring us a down day tomorrow, but by itself, it does not suggest a pullback.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.