Navigate the Stock Market: October 2025

Friday, October 31, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from Zero to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.

-Friday there was another Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. 3 in a row? Looks like a cluster to me. The Fosback New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen. Fosback’s indicator is still neutral. Since most indicators remain bullish and there are 12 bullish indicators today, I am not too concerned about the Hindenburg Omen.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, in a Holding pattern.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, October 30, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

“During another press conference of lies and deceit today, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) claims the American people are on the side of the Republicans and that they know the Democrats "caused" the government shutdown.” Video at...
'The People Are Paying Attention': Mike Johnson Resorts To Outright Lies, Claims Americans Are Only Blaming Democrats For The Government Shutdown | Watch
My cmt: I haven’t done any polling so I haven’t a clue who the American people blame for the shutdown. I can only say that regardless of what you think about the issues, the Democrats are the minority party; they were voted out of office and they are blackmailing the country. Their demand is, “Do what we want, or we shut down the Government.” And they are blaming the Republicans??! The press is buying this BS? So much for the “un-biased” press.

HEAD OF US MILITARY IN LATIN AMERICA TO STEP DOWN (Reuters)
“The admiral who leads U.S. military forces in Latin America {commander of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)},will step down at the end of this year, two years ahead of schedule, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Thursday, in a surprise move amid escalating tensions with Venezuela. A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that there had been tension between Admiral Alvin Holsey and Hegseth over operations in the Caribbean and questions about whether he would be fired in the days leading up to the announcement...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/surprise-move-head-us-military-latin-america-step-down-2025-10-16/
My cmt: I wondered how the military could follow Trump’s illegal orders to attack suspected drug-boats.

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST (CNN)
“...Lt. Gen. Joe McGee, the director for Strategy, Plans, and Policy on the Joint Staff, left his position earlier this month, the sources said. They added that McGee had frequently “pushed back” against Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine on issues ranging from Russia and Ukraine to military operations in the Caribbean.” Story at...
Exclusive: Three-star general pushed out amid tensions with Hegseth
My cmt: The GOP voted to support Trump’s attacks on suspected drug cartels in international waters.

ANOTHER CREDIT DOWNGRADE (Moneywise)
“On Oct. 24, Scope downgraded the U.S. local and foreign currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings from AA to AA-. (1)
‘Sustained deterioration in public finances and a weakening of governance standards drive the downgrade,’ the agency said in a statement. With ‘persistently elevated’ federal deficits and a rising net interest payment burden, Scope expects the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 140% by 2030 — well above its sovereign peers.” Story at...
US gets hit with another credit downgrade — agency warns of ‘sustained deterioration’ of finances and ‘weakening’ governance. What you need to know

JOBS (Seeking Alpha)
“ADP (ADP), the payrolls processing firm that issues a monthly report on private sector employment, estimated that U.S. private sector employers added 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ended Oct. 11, 2025, the company said on Tuesday.
The four-week moving average, to be issued every Tuesday, helps to provide some data on the labor market as the government shutdown deprives economists and policymakers of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs reports and weekly initial jobless claims.” Story at...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4509265-us-private-sector-added-143k-jobs-in-four-weeks-ended-oct-11-adp-estimates
My cmt: 14,250 jobs is a very low number and not a sign of a healthy economy.

JOB CREATION NEAR ZERO (Fortune)
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drew a stark picture of a labor market that looks fine on the surface—4.3% unemployment, solid consumer spending—but is quietly losing momentum underneath. Once you adjust for statistical overcounting in the payroll data, he said during a press conference Wednesday following the FOMC meeting, ‘job creation is pretty close to zero.”’
Jerome Powell says the AI hiring apocalypse is real: ‘Job creation is pretty close to zero’

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 6822.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.097% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell from +5 to Zero (equal numbers of Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.

Wow. Thursday, we note that Unchanged volume was extremely high, a sign of confusion that some believe precedes a change in market direction. This time the likely direction would be down. It was twice my threshold level and that is the highest level I have seen except for options expiration days. I’ve never included this in my indicators since it is wrong much more than right. One wonders whether the extreme number will make this an accurate indicator this time.

There were other negative signs:
-Wednesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal. My rule is that this signal remains in place for 10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
-Thursday there was another Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. 2 in a row, but no cluster yet.
-New-high/new-low data is bearish.
-The McClellan Oscillator is negative, a bearish sign.
-Up-volume is falling.

Not all the news was bad:
-The S&P 500 is declined to 11.7% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)
-Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,

BOTTOM LINE
Indicators have raised a concern so I’m neutral, in a Holding pattern. If yesterday was a top, we can expect a retreat of less than 10%.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Fed Decision ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT

The markets didn’t like Fed Chair Powell’s remarks after the official rate cut announcement. Presumably, it was his comments regarding another rate cut in December. Powell said, “In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,”

Stock market analysts confirmed that yesterday (Tuesday) was the weakest market breadth ever recorded for a day when the S&P 500 closed with a positive gain.
-Despite the S&P 500 rising by 0.23% to a new all-time high, nearly 80% of stocks in the index declined.
-Data from Bespoke Investment Group confirmed that the advance/decline ratio for Tuesday was the worst in history for an "up" day in the S&P 500. – from Yahoo Finance at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-hits-6-900-071335263.html

Curiously, I can’t confirm the numbers with my, admittedly different, method of looking at breadth. For example, my 150-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE showed that more than 52% of issues advanced over the last seven and a half months. On the near term, nearly 53% of issues on the NYSE have advanced over the last 2-weeks. At the high yesterday, 4.1% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s not a great number, but it’s not low enough to give a correction signal. It was below 3% back in August. I’m not arguing with Bespoke. I am sure that their numbers are correct. I just can’t confirm that it is time to sell this market. I will caution that calling a top is witch craft and while I have had great success calling major tops, I have missed smaller correction tops.

I will say this: Markets are approaching a top. Whether it will be a major top or just a correction remains to be seen.
.
If you don’t own Nvidia are you missing its advance? Probably not. NVDA is 15% of the XLK ETF and 8% of the S&P 500.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell from +11 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.

On Wednesday there was a new intra-day all-time high for the S&P 500 and it closed fractionally below the prior high. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.4% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

There were negative signs:
-The S&P 500 is 12.9% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)
-Wednesday there was a Bearish Outside Reversal.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
My rule is that this signal remains in place for 10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
-Wednesday there was a Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. No cluster yet.

BOTTOM LINE
Indicators have raised a concern so I’m neutral in a Hold pattern. The Index is stretched above its 200-dMA. I expect a top soon. Then we’ll also get a warning about how extensive a pullback may be. If today was a top, we can expect less than a 10% retreat.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Consumer Confidence ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
Not much different than yesterday. Indicators look good, but the S&P 50 continues to defy gravity and march higher. I don’t have a top signal yet.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a strong Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.

On Monday there was a new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 4.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

Bollinger Bands were overbought today, but RSI is solidly neutral for now, so no need for panic yet- it does not appear that a top is in.

There were some negative signs:
-The S&P 500 is 13% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)

BOTTOM LINE
Overall, indicators remain in good shape; I’m Bullish, but cautious because the Index is stretched above its 200-dMA. I expect a top soon. Then we’ll also get a warning about how extensive a pullback may be.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, October 27, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +9 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), still a strong Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.

On Monday there was a new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

Today was a Follow-thru day indicated by a “...big gain in rising volume...which confirms that a new uptrend is underway.” - From Investor Business Daly.

Bollinger Bands were overbought today, but RSI is solidly neutral for now, so no need to worry - it does not appear that a top is in.

There were some negative signs: Today, Monday, was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. There were not enough reliable indicators that were warning of a top.

The S&P 500 is 12.9% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)

BOTTOM LINE
Overall, indicators remain in good shape; I’m Bullish, but cautious because the Index is stretched above its 200-dMA.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, October 24, 2025

CPI ... Michigan Sentiment ... Composite PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

NO FEDERAL DISASTER DECLARATION FOR WESTERN MD (Maryland.gov)
“The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) informed the State of Maryland late last night that the state’s appeal for a Major Disaster Declaration for the May 2025 flooding that occurred in Allegany and Garrett Counties has been officially denied. For the Western Maryland communities who experienced devastating flooding, there are no additional appeals available and there is no legal recourse for the State to seek federal disaster funding. “This outcome is not just deeply frustrating, it also ignores the devastation wrought by historic floods in Appalachia and leaves Marylanders on their own,” said Gov. Moore.” Story at...
https://governor.maryland.gov/news/press/pages/Western-Maryland-Flood-Survivors-Left-Without-Federal-Disaster-Aid-After-Trump-Administration-Denies-Appeal.aspx
My cmt: As a former Emergency Manager in the Federal system, I can understand the basis for Trump’s decision. The Stafford Act established the framework for the federal disaster assistance to the states. It was written such that the federal government would only be involved when the State could not handle a disaster on its own. Over the years that was eroded to the point where even snowstorms were declared disasters, as if the locals couldn’t handle snow removal. The reason the states want a declared disaster is simple – it opens the federal coffers and the Feds pay for 75% of the cost. In the case above, only 2 counties were involved; on the surface, Trump’s decision is following the original intent of the law - not something I say about Trump very often.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

CPI (CBS News)
“The Consumer Price Index climbed at an annual rate of 3% in September, coming in below economists' forecasts as the impact of President Trump's tariffs remain muted.”

Story at...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-today-inflation-september-2025-tariffs/

S&P GLOBAL US COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated in October to the second-fastest so far this year, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025 to date. Improvements in output and new work were recorded in manufacturing and services, though both sectors signaled falling exports. Factories also reported falling input buying amid a steep drop in backlogs of work and an unprecedented build-up of unsold stock. Meanwhile, while employment growth picked up, the pace of job creation remained only modest, and weakened especially in manufacturing.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/eb6ffb6222214cbfbb42d44541c5ebbe

NEW HOME SALES
“Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report.” Press release at...
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-september

MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, slipping a scant 1.5 index points from September. A modest increase in sentiment among younger consumers was offset by decreases among middle-age and older consumers. Current personal finances inched up, while expected personal finances receded. Overall, consumers perceive few material changes in economic circumstances from last month; inflation and high prices remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. There was little evidence this month that consumers connect the federal government shutdown to the economy.... Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to 4.6% this month.” Report at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6792.
-VIX declined about 5% to 16.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.003% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s annual inflation number was 3% vs. the 2.9% from last month. It hardly seems like a celebration was in order, but since Wall Street expected 3.1% it is hailed as wonderful news and markets shot higher.

We can use the rule of 72 to find the impact of inflation lingering at 3% annually. Prices will double every 24 years (72 divided by 3). At the Fed’s target of 2%, prices will double every 36 years. That’s high and it mostly explains why replacing my Tahoe is going to cost $75,000 vs. a car I bought for $34,500 20-years ago.

There was some good news: core inflation excluding food and energy dropped from 3.1% annually to 3%. That’s still well above the Fed target, but it’s ok, because who needs food and energy? The Fed is still expected to cut rates next week. According to Fed Watch at the CME Group, there is a 97% chance of a quarter point rate reduction.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), still a strong Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.

On Friday there was a new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.

The S&P 500 is 11.6% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)