Consumer Confidence ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via prnewswire)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® inched down by 1.0 point in October to 94.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September... "Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board... Preliminary data suggest that consumers' holiday spending will be down this season compared to last year. Notably consumers expect to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gifts (all in nominal terms). When asked what will be driving their spending decisions over the upcoming holidays, consumers most frequently cited promotions and getting the most out of every dollar.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-virtually-unchanged-in-october-302596825.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 68991.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.44. (Are the Options Players getting worried?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.978% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish (same as yesterday). The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Not much different than yesterday. Indicators look good, but the S&P 50 continues to defy gravity and march higher. I don’t have a top signal yet.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a strong Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
 
On Monday there was a new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 4.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today.  That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.
 
Bollinger Bands were overbought today, but RSI is solidly neutral for now, so no need for panic yet- it does not appear that a top is in.
 
There were some negative signs:
-The S&P 500 is 13% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets and 12% is my sell point for this indicator (although we never act on just one indicator.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
Overall, indicators remain in good shape; I’m Bullish, but cautious because the Index is stretched above its 200-dMA. I expect a top soon. Then we’ll also get a warning about how extensive a pullback may be.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.