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NO FEDERAL DISASTER DECLARATION FOR WESTERN MD (Maryland.gov)
“The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) informed the State of Maryland late last night that the state’s appeal for a Major Disaster Declaration for the May 2025 flooding that occurred in Allegany and Garrett Counties has been officially denied. For the Western Maryland communities who experienced devastating flooding, there are no additional appeals available and there is no legal recourse for the State to seek federal disaster funding. “This outcome is not just deeply frustrating, it also ignores the devastation wrought by historic floods in Appalachia and leaves Marylanders on their own,” said Gov. Moore.” Story at...
https://governor.maryland.gov/news/press/pages/Western-Maryland-Flood-Survivors-Left-Without-Federal-Disaster-Aid-After-Trump-Administration-Denies-Appeal.aspx
My cmt: As a former Emergency Manager in the Federal system, I can understand the basis for Trump’s decision.  The Stafford Act established the framework for the federal disaster assistance to the states. It was written such that the federal government would only be involved when the State could not handle a disaster on its own. Over the years that was eroded to the point where even snowstorms were declared disasters, as if the locals couldn’t handle snow removal. The reason the states want a declared disaster is simple – it opens the federal coffers and the Feds pay for 75% of the cost. In the case above, only 2 counties were involved; on the surface, Trump’s decision is following the original intent of the law - not something I say about Trump very often.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
CPI (CBS News)
“The Consumer Price Index climbed at an annual rate of 3% in September, coming in below economists' forecasts as the impact of President Trump's tariffs remain muted.”
 

Story at...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-today-inflation-september-2025-tariffs/
 
S&P GLOBAL US COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated in October to the second-fastest so far this year, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025 to date. Improvements in output and new work were recorded in manufacturing and services, though both sectors signaled falling exports. Factories also reported falling input buying amid a steep drop in backlogs of work and an unprecedented build-up of unsold stock. Meanwhile, while employment growth picked up, the pace of job creation remained only modest, and weakened especially in manufacturing.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/eb6ffb6222214cbfbb42d44541c5ebbe
 
NEW HOME SALES
“Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report.” Press release at... 
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-september
 
MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, slipping a scant 1.5 index points from September. A modest increase in sentiment among younger consumers was offset by decreases among middle-age and older consumers. Current personal finances inched up, while expected personal finances receded. Overall, consumers perceive few material changes in economic circumstances from last month; inflation and high prices remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. There was little evidence this month that consumers connect the federal government shutdown to the economy.... Year-ahead inflation expectations ebbed from 4.7% last month to 4.6% this month.” Report at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6792.
-VIX declined about 5% to 16.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.003% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s annual inflation number was 3% vs. the 2.9% from last month. It hardly seems like a celebration was in order, but since Wall Street expected 3.1% it is hailed as wonderful news and markets shot higher.
 
We can use the rule of 72 to find the impact of inflation lingering at 3% annually. Prices will double every 24 years (72 divided by 3). At the Fed’s target of 2%, prices will double every 36 years. That’s high and it mostly explains why replacing my Tahoe is going to cost $75,000 vs. a car I bought for $34,500 20-years ago.
 
There was some good news: core inflation excluding food and energy dropped from 3.1% annually to 3%.  That’s still well above the Fed target, but it’s ok, because who needs food and energy? The Fed is still expected to cut rates next week. According to Fed Watch at the CME Group, there is a 97% chance of a quarter point rate reduction.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), still a strong Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a Bullish sign.
 
On Friday there was a new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.1% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today.  That number is below the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a warning, i.e., new-highs’ are ok, but I’d like to see them higher.
 
The S&P 500 is 11.6% greater than its 200-dMA. The 10-15% zone is where we often see weakness in the markets.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.