… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
FED CHAIR UNDER INVESTIGATION (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under federal criminal investigation related to the $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters and his congressional testimony about that, Powell said…Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, and Banking Committee member, said he would oppose any nominee by Trump to replace Powell, and any Fed board nominee, ‘until this legal matter is fully resolved.’” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/fed-jerome-powell-criminal-probe-nyt.html
My cmt: Trump strikes again. How low can he go?
 
ICE WATCHERS – USEFUL IDIOTS (NTSM)
“During the Vietnam War, uniformed military personnel were harassed, spit on and pelted with all sorts of refuse. It made no sense.  Most of them/us were drafted or enlisted to avoid the draft. Why treat people badly who did their duty? The real villains were the politicians.
 
Now, for following orders from their elected representatives, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employees are receiving the same treatment. It’s wrong. Protests should be taking place in Washington and at the local offices of Senators and Congressmen where protests might do some good. I’ve never felt it was necessary to arrest illegal immigrants who have jobs and are therefore, helping our country. Give them temporary Green Cards and 3 months to apply for permanent cards. That sort of solution might be accomplished thru political protest.
 
But it wouldn’t support the agenda of the anarchists and trouble-makers behind the scenes. These activists are training "ICE Watchers" and "observers" to “legally” harass ICE in the performance of their duties. The confrontational strategy invites conflict and that is the goal of far-left activists. If a useful idiot is shot while protesting, that is good for their cause: disrupt Governmental function; diminish faith in government; and eventually, overthrow democracy.
 
If you think my argument is an extreme conspiracy-theory, then ask yourself: Why are protestors harassing people who can’t affect change?” – Navigate the Stock Market Blog
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 6977.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.185% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +12 to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Monday. New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market. Today’s breadth looks good. Over the last 2 weeks, 54% of issues on the NYSE have been higher. In addition, about 8% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today.  That number is well above the 5-year average. The McClellan Oscillator is positive. The stats suggest a broad, healthy market. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I should calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.