Monday, February 9, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TEAM USA BOOED (WSJ)
“In an unmistakable sign of Europe’s rapidly dimming view on America, the U.S. delegation entered the San Siro stadium here on Friday night to a chorus of boos and disapproving whistles from the international crowd of more than 65,000. The jeering only intensified when Vice President JD Vance appeared on the big screen during Team USA’s arrival.” Story at…
My cmt: This is reporting by the WSJ, a conservative publication. It is amusing to see the MAGA crowd attempt to deny it occurred.
 
WSJ LETTERS – SAT/SUN 7-8 Feb. (WSJ)  
“Lost in Mr. Trump’s tariff regime is any principle or standard. Sold as a reciprocal trade strategy to lower and eliminate tariffs bilaterally, it has morphed into the chaotic, episodic impulses of a president more interested in exercising power than the principle of advancing global free trade…As we await the Supreme Court’s decision on the president’s tariffs, we can hope for a world absent most of them, where solid economic growth is built upon stable trade policy and long-term business planning guided by free-trade principles.” - Tim Parker, CEO, Parker Flavors

 

-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6965.
-VIX fell about 2% to 17.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.202% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +2 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The Short-term, High/Low logic Index is giving a bearish indication. This indicator usually, but not always, warns during corrections.
 
There was a Bullish divergence in the Lowry Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator; it suggests that the weakness is over.  If that’s correct, we should finally see the S&P 500 break above the upper trend-line in the Bearish ascending wedge. That would be a welcome sign. Otherwise, markets are headed down.
 
The Ascending Wedge currently terminates shortly after 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline. We’re still waiting.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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