Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Retail Sales … Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
MASS DEPORTATION HURTS FLORIDA JOBS (WSJ)
“…in May 2023, Florida Republicans passed legislation aimed at countering Joe Biden’s porous border policies.
The law’s centerpiece requires private employers with 25 or more employees to use the federal government’s E-Verify system to confirm the work authorization of new hires…But the E-Verify mandate makes it harder for migrants to work to support themselves, and it adds a burden on employers. E-Verify can also be unreliable because it relies on federal records that aren’t always up to date. That means it can disqualify some immigrants with valid work permits. U.S. Labor Department data suggest that Florida’s E-Verify law has harmed job growth…The lesson for President Trump is that businesses can’t grow if government takes away their workers.” Opinion at…
 
NFIB OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98…While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth…Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.” Report at…
 
RETAIL SALES (CNBC)
“Consumer activity slowed sharply for the December holiday shopping season amid a spate of rough weather, tariff impact and persistently higher inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales were flat on the month…” Story at…
 
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6942.
-VIX rose about 2% to 17.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.141% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. (Yesterday’s spread improved because the McClellan Oscillator was positive.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign; but it may reverse soon.
 
The Bullish divergence in the Lowry Research, Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator remains; it suggests that the weakness is over. 
 
The Ascending Bearish Wedge on the chart currently terminates around 19 March. A breakdown before that date is likely if the S&P 500 is not able to break above the upper trendline.
 
The crunch on the wedge is coming, but the indicators still look good.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral until the chart resolves…one way or the other.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

  

Posted by at