ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI … Birthright Citizenship … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP
There have been some strange cases in the Supreme Court recently. There have been cases when the ruling should have been 9-0, but liberal justices were opposed; for example, Students for Fair Admission vs Harvard seemed straightforward to me. The Constitution is color blind so it should have been simple to rule against race-based admission standards. Apparently, it wasn’t simple enough; the vote was 6-2 and Jackson recused herself since she is on the board for Harvard. The vote was 6-3 in a similar UNC case. Sotomayor wrote: "Ignoring race will not equalize a society that is racially unequal. What was true in the 1860s, and again in 1954, is true today: Equality requires acknowledgment of inequality." Uh, what? This isn’t 1860 or even 1960. The Constitution is clear and there seemed to be little reason to make race-based decisions in 2023.
 
Similarly, I expected a 9-0 ruling in the Birthright Citizenship case.
 
Here’s the 14^TH amendment of the US Constitution:
“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside…”
 
Some who are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the US include foreign diplomats and high-ranking embassy staffs. A diplomat can’t be arrested – an illegal immigrant most certainly can be – they are under our jurisdiction. Off hand, I can’t think of any others. An invading army? It is disappointing to me when the Supreme Court can’t decide a simple case like this 9-0. This time it was the Conservative wing subverting the Constitution. Here’s the gist:
 
… Trump maintained that the [14^th amendment] provision was meant to apply only to former slaves, but "wasn't meant for the entire world to occupy the United States." That interpretation, however, has not been embraced by the courts or the legal norms of the country for 160 years.
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
My cmt: Yes, the Constitution was amended to ensure that children of slaves were citizens, but the language is broader than that, as is its clear intent.
 
ROBERTS FOR THE MAJORITY:
“Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the court's 6-3 opinion, citing both the colonists' demands for the "rights of Englishmen" as well as the abolitionists lauding of the "ancient and universal" rule of citizenship by birth alone.
"Citizenship, then and now, was the right to have rights — to freely participate in our political community. The Framers of the Fourteenth Amendment extended that promise to 'every free-born person in this land,'" Roberts wrote. "We keep that promise today."
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
 
ALITO DISSENT:
“Alito railed against the majority's ruling in a forceful dissent, arguing the justices misinterpreted the 14th Amendment. He wrote that only people who owe their full allegiance to the United States, and not another country, should automatically receive citizenship at birth…"
Alito warns Supreme Court made 'serious mistake' that could have national security consequences
My cmt: The Constitution doesn’t say anything about “allegiance to the United States.”
 
THOMAS DISSENT:
"Despite his longstanding endorsement of a 'colorblind' Constitution, Justice Thomas now surprisingly suggests that the Citizenship Clause was a race-conscious remedial measure, relating only to 'freed slaves such as Dred Scott,' and those who shared with them certain characteristics…" - Justice Ketanji Brown.
My cmt: The language is not limited to a remedial measure. In 1868 (when the 14^th amendment was ratified) immigration was open. Does Justice Thomas think that children of immigrants in 1868 shouldn’t have been citizens?
 
GORSUCH DISSENT
“Gorsuch also wrote a separate brief dissent, in which he appeared to suggest that Trump’s executive order might violate the Constitution as it applies to the children of undocumented immigrants who intend to live in the United States permanently. “If those parents are not domiciled here,” Gorsuch queried, “then where are they domiciled? And if the answer is nowhere,” he continued, “how can we reconcile that conclusion with this Court’s longstanding recognition that every person is domiciled somewhere?”  Story at…
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump
My cmt: I didn’t get the domicile argument.
 
KAVANAUGH
“…Justice Brett Kavanaugh was the outlier in the decision, agreeing with the court’s judgment but disagreeing with its justification. Yes, the president’s executive order was unlawful, but not because it was unconstitutional, Kavanaugh essentially said…”
The alarming split in the Supreme Court’s birthright citizenship ruling
 
The conservatives tout texturalism and originalism. Justice Anton Scalia defined texturalism as a method of constitutional interpretation that prioritizes the plain, objective meaning of the text. He defined originalism as the philosophy that the Constitution should be interpreted based on what its words meant to a reasonable person at the time they were ratified. He famously described the Constitution as "enduring" rather than "living," arguing originalism constraints judges from inventing new laws.
 
It looks like the Conservatives abandoned those principles in the Birthright Citizen Case. As a follower of the Supreme Court, I was disappointed.
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory… “Respondents in June commented less frequently about pricing impacts on petroleum products, while tariff impacts continued to be a theme for increased pricing pressure.” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/june/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7537.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
 
Monday there was High-unchanged-volume. Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of investor confusion at a market reversal. This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong. Perhaps we can just say investors are not convinced about the strength of the recent move higher. Another sign of “lack-of-conviction” is low volume. Today’s volume was about 15% below the monthly average. You will hear talking heads say that this shows that the rally is suspect. I think not; volume is often low at the start of a move higher since many are not convinced that this is the time to buy. I think it is.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. Technology sector (XLK) was up 1.7% Monday.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.