Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
BUSY DAY TODAY!
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
U.S. jobless claims decreased for the fifth week in a row as employers continue to keep their workforce levels static. The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 197,000 in the week through Oct. 3, 2,000 lower than the revised 199,000 reported a week earlier…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-slide-yet-again-2d927e44
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7765.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.225% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat a NEUTRAL sign.
 
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT TODAY…
Breadth continues to be poor. The McClellan Oscillator remains bearish, another sign of bad breadth. The weak breadth at the all-time high does suggest that if we do have a correction, it is likely to be greater than 10%. As usual, we need more information.
 
A down day doesn’t tell us much. We need to see another new-high on the Index and hope that internals will improve. That would be a good sign especially if breadth measures suggest a broadening rally. There was some improvement in the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE (one my breadth measures).
 
We continue to watch indicators.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral until we see improvement in indicators; weak indicators may send us to bear mode.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.