Payrolls … Unemployment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
WSJ LETTERS (WSJ)
“In her column “The Case for a Historic Wave” (Declarations, Oct. 31), Peggy Noonan expressed her hope that Republicans would get wiped out in the election: “This is what I hope for: that it won’t be a close election, that the outcome is unmistakable. Let it be a clear and obvious rebuke—a rejection, a rebellion, a rout.”
This thinking is based on the naive belief that Democrats are capable of governing without perpetuating further divisions. The blue tsunami will undoubtedly result in pushes for open borders, abortion on demand, statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, voting rights for noncitizens, men playing in women’s sports, people with deviant views of sexuality lecturing kindergartners, a 13-member Supreme Court and condemnation of Israel. What common good dos Ms. Noonan hope will result from a government run by today’s Democrats?” - Jack Kenesey.
 
“Ms. Noonan hoped for a big wave. She got it. But the Democratic Party’s severe lurch to the left, along with its embrace of socialism and antisemitism, causes me to file this one under “be careful what you wish for.” - Gordon Gould
WSJ Letters From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-dangers-of-a-democratic-wave-election-ca3fea3b?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos13
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, well above the Wall Street forecast for 59,000, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1%.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/jobs-report-october-2026.html
 
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (NIV of MICHIGAN)
“Consumer sentiment ticked up about 6% in the preliminary read… Year-ahead inflation expectations declined from 4.7% last month to 4.3% this month. Although the current reading is the lowest since August, it remains substantially above the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began…”
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7377.
-VIX declined about 9% to 25.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.859% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 5.7% below its all-time high
          - 3.9% below its 50-dMA
          - 3.2% below its 100-dMA
          - 0.7% above its 200-dMA
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, was flat, a NEUTRAL sign. (The 10-day has been bouncing back and forth so it’s hard to place too much faith in it.)
 
I didn’t make any changes to the portfolio; the day was very busy. I may reduce some stocks Monday.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Same as Thursday: I’m Bearish and inclined to ere on the side of caution and cut some stock holdings. I’ll try and post Monday if I make changes to the portfolio. It is likely to be late in the day.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.