I’ve been out this long – a little longer won’t make much
difference.
I am remaining at 30% invested in Stocks. Sorry for the
flip-flop.
Friday, March 22, 2019
STAYING OUT
After further consideration I am staying mostly out of
the market until we see the dust settle on the latest FED action. There are
many signs of a slowdown – the FED’s latest indication of no more rate hikes
this year (coupled with cancelation of the balance sheet wind-down in
September) may be perceived as negative for the market.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
Jobless Claims … Philadelphia FED …. Leading Economic Indicators … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking
“Trade what you
see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader
extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing applications for
unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to still
strong labor market conditions, though the pace of job growth has slowed after
last year’s robust gains…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped
9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended March 16…” Story at…
PHILADELPHIA FED (Bloomberg)
“The six-month outlook for manufacturing in America’s
mid-Atlantic region slumped to a three-year low, another sign that expectations
for weaker global growth may be weighing on producers. The Federal Reserve Bank
of Philadelphia’s index for future activity fell 9.5 points to 21.8 in March…”
Story at…
LEI (PRNewswire)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for
the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following
no change in January, and a 0.1 percent decline in December. ‘The US LEI
increased in February for the first time in five months," said Ataman
Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board.
"February's improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions
and a rebound in stock prices, which more than offset weaknesses in the labor
market components. Despite the latest results, the US LEI's growth rate has
slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will
continue to expand in the near-term, its pace of growth could decelerate by
year end.’" Press release at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 2855.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.534%.
Most signs are bullish. Let’s looks at the few bearish
ones:
- Today was a statistically significant up-day. That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically significant up-day is followed by a down day about
60% of the time. That is the fifth statistically significant move in the last
16-trading sessions. That usually
happens at a top or a bottom. With the FED continuing to give the market what
it wants it doesn’t seem like a top. It
certainly isn’t a bottom. I guess today’s move was simply a bullish response to
the FED’s indication yesterday that there is a very low chance of a rate hike
this year. When we ask why? We see that
the economy is slowing. That’s good news? It seems so, for the time being.
- Bollinger Bands were overbought, not oversold, a
typo from yesterday. RSI is neutral. I like to use these indicators together so
this isn’t really a very strong negative for now.
-The overbought/oversold index is “overbought”. This one
is always early so it’s not an indicator that we pay too much attention to.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +7 to +8 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +30 to +43.
I see no reason to stay out of the market at this point. The
S&P 500 has broken above one of the last levels of resistance and remained
there for several closes. (The final level is the prior high.) Most indicators
are positive and the Markets seem to be drunk on FED cool-aid. I may as well
join the party. I’ll be increasing stock holdings to 50% - this is probably the
death nell for the rally.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked
based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks on as of 9 January 2019. I’ll be moving to a balanced 50% stock
portfolio Friday. Stay conservative; this market is fragile and could turn down
quickly if we have bad news that triggers a shift to risk aversion.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the PRICE,
VOLUME and VIX indicators were positive. The SENTIMENT indicator was neutral.
Overall this is a BULLISH indication. I am as I write this but I will increase
stock holdings tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
FOMC Rate Decision … Crude Oil Inventories … World Economy is Slowing … American Trucking Association Sees Slowing … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking
“Trade what you
see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader
extraordinaire.
FOMC RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The central bank says it will complete its balance sheet
roll-off program at the end of the September. The Fed also reduced expectations
in GDP growth and inflation and a bump higher in the unemployment rate outlook…there
now appears to be no likelihood of a hike unless conditions change
significantly. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC indicated it would
remain “patient” before adopting any further increases.” Story at…
Oh…and they left rates unchanged.
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (OIlPrice.com)
“A day after API’s estimate of
another weekly crude oil inventory draw in a row sent WTI higher, the Energy
Information Administration confirmed a
large draw, at 9.6 million barrels for the week to March 15. The authority said
crude oil inventories stood at 439.5 million barrels at March 15, slightly
below the average for the season.” Story at…
FED EX WARNS WORLD ECONOMY SLOWING(CNBC)
“’Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and
weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year
decline in our FedEx Express international revenue,’ says Alan B. Graf, Jr.,
FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. FedEx reported
weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue after the closing bell
on Tuesday, and cut full-year guidance.” Story at…
ATA (American Trucking Assoc)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was down 0.2% in February after
increasing 2.5% in January…’After a strong January, I’m a pleasantly surprised
that the index didn’t fall much last month,’ said ATA Chief Economist Bob
Costello. ‘I continue to expect tonnage to moderate like other
indicators, including retail sales, manufacturing activity and housing starts.
Additionally, the level of inventories throughout the supply chain have
increased, which is a drag on truck freight.’…Compared with February 2018, the
SA index increased 5.4%...” Press release at…
My cmt: So far, it looks like a dip, but no recession
yet.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2824.
-VIX rose about 4% to 13.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.533% as
bonds rallied due to the Fed’s further announcement that rates are not likely
to be raised this year.
Yesterday I noted that the XLI is slowing and cautioned
that indicator suggested trouble for the overall market. Perhaps not. Boeing is
the largest holding of the XLI-ETF and it makes up 10% of its assets. Boeing’s
troubles are pulling down the XLI so XLI underperformance should probably be
ignored for now.
Today we were chart watching in between running errands. There
was a big bounce up at the Fed announcement, but markets were unable to hold
the highs around 2844 on the S&P 500.
The Index dropped from about 3pm through the close.
Again, Bollinger Bands were nearly oversold. RSI is
neutral. I like to use these indicators together so this isn’t really a very
strong negative for now.
My Breadth vs. the S&P 500 indicator remains in
neutral position.
On the bullish side, MACD made a bullish crossover yesterday
and Money Trend remains positive; Late day action was negative today, but the longer-term
version of this indicator has turned up. This would indicate that Pros are beginning
to buy, or at least they are holding positions overnight.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +9 to +7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +21 to +30. This is
bullish.
I put resistance at about 2815-2820. We’ve seen about 3
closes just barely above that level, but with a little bit more retracement the
Index will once again be lower.
I still haven’t managed to increase my percentage of
stock investments. Further bullish moves
in the S&P 500, comfortably above 2820, will force me to buy stocks.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks on as of 9 January 2019. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock
portfolio so this is a very conservative position.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the
PRICE and VIX indicators were positive. The VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators
were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication. I remain defensive for the
time being depending on market action.
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Factory Orders … Cyclicals Underperforming … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking
“Trade what you
see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader
extraordinaire.
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods rose less than expected
in January and shipments fell for a fourth straight month, offering more
evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing activity. Factory goods orders edged up
0.1 percent, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday, held back by decreases in
orders for computers and electronic products…” Story at…
AVI GILBERT COMMENTARY (MarketWatch)
“Many investors are starting to get bullish as U.S.
stocks approach a potential topping target. For those who follow the market closely,
you know this is typical. Over the past week, we have seen interesting dynamics
across many segments of the market we track. The weight of evidence is still
pointing to a corrective rally, which will likely have stocks revisit the
December 2018 lows, and potentially lower… it seems investors have jumped into
the market in a big way over the past week. There was one of the largest weekly
inflows into U.S. equities in 52 weeks [$25 billion] and the fourth-largest
weekly inflows on record. Based on the other evidence, this could suggest
investors are streaming into the market as a top nears.” -Avi Gilbert, ElliottWaveTrader.net
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING (Real Investment Advice)
“Currently, the deterioration in the growth rate of
earnings, and economic strength, are not supportive of the current levels of
asset prices or leverage. The idea of whether, or not, the Federal
Reserve, along with virtually every other central bank in the world, are
inflating the next asset bubble is of significant importance to investors who
can ill afford to, once again, lose a large chunk of their net worth. It is all
reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now
famous words: ‘Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau.’” –
Lance Roberts.
My cmt: Lance Roberts isn’t calling for a drop right now,
but he does feel that markets are exhibiting topping behavior, including a
possible climb above prior highs.
CYCLICALS UNDER-PERFORMING (NTSM Blog)
When the red and green lines are falling, it signals that
the XLI-ETF (Industrial Cyclicals) is under-performing the S&P 500. When investors are concerned, cyclicals underperform.
While it may be tempting to ignore this chart because the drop predicted by the
XLI-S&P 500 divergence may have already occurred, I don’t think that is the
case; I have other measures of XLI vs. S&P 500 that are just now warning of
a top in the S&P 500. No indicator is perfect, but this is enough of an issue
to make me remain mostly out of the stock market. This indicator is not necessarily calling
currently calling for a large drop.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2833.
-VIX rose about 4% to 13.56.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.618%
Today, Bollinger Bands were nearly oversold. RSI is neutral.
I like to use these indicators together so this isn’t really a very strong negative
for now.
My Breadth vs the S&P 500 indicator dropped back into
a more neutral position. That is a good
topping indicator that was stretched earlier – now it isn’t giving a signal.
On the bullish side, MACD made a bullish crossover today
and Money Trend remains positive; Late day action was negative today, but the longer-term
version of this indicator is beginning to turn up. This would indicate that Pros
are beginning to buy or at least hold positions overnight.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators jumped from +3 to +9 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +12 to +21. This is
bullish.
I still haven’t managed to increase my percentage of
stock investments. XLI-S&P500 divergence
is an issue – we’ll see.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved
to POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks on as of 9 January 2019. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock
portfolio so this is a very conservative position.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, the PRICE
and VIX indicators were positive. The VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication. I remain defensive for the time
being depending on market action.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Jeffrey Saut Commentary Excerpt … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking
“Trade what you see;
not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JEFFREY SAUT COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Raymond Jmaes)
“…the S&P 500 (SPX/2822.48) closed above its March 4,
2019 intraday reaction high of 2816.88 last week, causing many pundits to
suggest an upside breakout. I am not so sure and continue to use the 2800 –
2830 zone as the valid upside resistance zone. Last week was the fourth attempt
to better that zone. Our work shows another “polarity flip” due this week with
the potential of a pause, or a pullback attempt, which should be small.” Fulle
commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 2833.
-VIX rose 2% to 13.1. (The options Boys are betting
against the rally today.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.602%
Today, Bollinger Bands gave an oversold indication. The
last time that happened was at the September high before the 20%, 2018 correction. RSI is not oversold. I like to use these
indicators together. Further, I don’t see the other negative signs that were
present in Sept 2018, so I don’t expect a big drop now, but we do see some
negative signs.
My Breadth vs the S&P 500 indicator is getting
stretched. That is a good topping
indicator, though it hasn’t called a top yet. Some measures of longer-term
breadth (% of stocks advancing on the NYSE) are very stretched and have
exceeded values at the top of the 16%-correction in 2010. Late day action was
positive today, but the Pros are still selling as evidenced over the longer
term.
On the bullish side, MACD almost made a bullish crossover
today and Money Trend remains positive.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +4 to +3 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +9 to +12. This remains
mostly bullish, but the stall in indicators may suggest a turn in the markets this
week.
I still haven’t managed to increase my percentage of
stock investments. Let’s see if there is
a rough patch coming for stocks.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks on as of 9 January 2019. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock
portfolio so this is a very conservative position.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Monday, the PRICE
and VIX indicators were positive. The VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication. I remain defensive for the time
being depending on market action.
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Empire State Manufacturing … Industrial Production … Univ. of Michigan Sentiment … JOLTS Job Openings … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (MarketWatch)
“The New York Fed’s Empire State business-conditions
index fell to a reading of 3.7 in March from 8.8 in the prior month…growth is
quite a bit slower so far this year than in 2018…A slowdown in China’s
manufacturing sector was seen as the leading culprit.” Story at…
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MarketWatch)
“Industrial production edged up 0.1% in February…the gains
were concentrated in utility output and mining. Manufacturing fell 0.4%, the
second straight monthly decline. …”
Story at…
SENTIMENT (FoxBusiness)
“U.S. consumer confidence rose at the beginning of
March, a sign that consumers may be feeling more optimistic than they did to
start the year.” Story at…
JOLTS (CNBC)
“Job vacancies jumped to a fresh high of 7.6 million in
January as employers continue to seek qualified applicants to fill positions,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.” Story at…
PAUL SHATTZ COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Heritage Capital)
“Given the run we have had this week, coupled with
negative seasonality next week, my initial take is that stocks are not going to
run away from here…However, even if stocks pause here or mildly pullback, I
don’t think it will be enough to warrant much action. There is too much
strength beneath the surface…Bull markets do not end with behavior like this.” –
Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 2822.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 12.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.592%
There was extreme volume associated with the Triple
Witching expiration of options Friday.
Friday was a statistically significant up-day at mid-day.
That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. That
would have been the fifth statistically significant move in the last 10-trading
sessions. That sort of back and forth
big-move trading usually happens at a top or a bottom; but there was some late
day selling (all afternoon actually) that negates this particular indicator
since the S&P 500 didn’t advance far enough. I don’t have stats on partial statistically-significant
days.
-Bollinger Bands were just shy of issuing an oversold
indication. Perhaps that spooked the buyers.
-Breadth is 51% indicating that over the past 2-weeks
more than 50% of stocks have been up on the NYSE. That’s generally a positive
sign, but some measures of breadth are falling sharply and this needs to be watched.
-The Pros are still selling as evidenced by late-day
action.
-We noticed high unchanged-volume 2 out of the last 4 days.
Some analysts believe this indicates a top since it suggests investor
confusion. That sounds logical, but I
never found a very strong correlation. Sometimes it’s right and sometimes it’s
wrong.
-MACD may make a bullish crossover soon. We’ll see if that happens next week.
-Money Trend is positive.
My daily sum of 20 Indicators rose from +3 to +4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations declined from +10 to +9. This remains
mostly bullish, but the stall in indicators may suggest a turn in the markets
next week.
I still haven’t managed to increase my percentage of
stock investments. Let’s see if there is
a rough patch coming for stocks.
The Index is fighting resistance around the 2820
level. Today we got a bit higher. I have
waited so long to get back in, there’s no need to rush now.
My experience with this rally has been just another
lesson of: “Follow your indicators!” It just seemed impossible that there would
not be a retest of the December low; it could still happen, but I am getting
tired of betting that it will. I am not short the market, but I have lost
opportunity cost associated with being mostly out. Of course, this is exactly the reason I leave
30% in the market. I have been wrong about a retest, but I have still made
money on the rally.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals dropped
to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in
stocks on as of 9 January 2019. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock
portfolio so this is a very conservative position.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Friday, the PRICE
and VIX indicators were positive. The VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication. I remain defensive for the time
being depending on market action.
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