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Wednesday, January 28, 2026

SOLD Leveraged Position

I sold SSO as a risk management action. I am overinvested and I want to see if the S&P 500 can break out of its bearish ascending wedge pattern.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Richmond Fed … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

“The Trump administration’s assault on Minnesota long ago stopped being a matter of immigration enforcement. It is a campaign of organized brutality against the people of our state. It isn’t just. It isn’t legal. And, critically, it isn’t making anyone any safer.” – Tim Waltz, Governor, Minnesota.
My cmt: There would have been a lot less trouble in Minnesota if the state had enforced laws against harassing Federal ICE members doing their jobs.

“What is Reagan not remembered for? Deportations. He put his effort into legalizing people already here—nearly three million, the largest such legalization in U.S. history. He made a point of promoting and signing a law with increased enforcement powers but barely used them. He deported in eight years fewer people than President Obama did in six months. Reagan understood the purpose of prosecutorial discretion. America had failed so long and so consistently to enforce its own immigration laws or make them sensible. It owed better to those now here than to treat every undocumented grandmother and restaurant worker as the equivalent of a Tren de Aragua gangster.´- Holman W. Jenkins, Opinion Columnist, Business World, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-regression-to-the-mean-011c8056?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

RICHMOND FED INDEX (Richmond FED)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity was mostly unchanged in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index inched up to −6 in January from −7 in December.” Report at…
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/business_surveys/manufacturing

DALLAS FED SERVICES (Dallas Fed)
"Texas factory activity expanded solidly in January after contracting in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped to 11.2 from -3.0, a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2601

-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6979.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.229% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

The S&P 500 has been up 5-days in a row. That’s a high number, but there have only been 12 up-days in the last month. That’s not enough to give a sell-signal. It looks like the markets can continue higher although the Index is due for a down-day.

It is up to price action now. Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried. As I write this, futures are showing a bullish day is likely tomorrow. Further, the futures market is higher than that upper wedge line – a bullish sign.

The Fed meeting wraps up Wednesday, 28 January. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch, there is a 96% chance that rates will remain unchanged. But, there can still be some market angst around the press conference after the meeting.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested. I haven’t sold anything yet.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 80% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, January 26, 2026

National Activity Index … Durable Goods … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/26/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-november-2025

DURABLE GOODS (Marketplace.org)
“Durable goods orders for November were released Monday, after a government shutdown delayed the Census Bureau report… New durable goods orders shot up more than 5%, after falling in October. You can chalk a lot of that up to a surge in bookings for new planes from Boeing.” Story at…
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/01/26/why-durable-goods-orders-were-up-5-in-november

DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX (Dallas Fed)
“Texas factory activity expanded solidly in January after contracting in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped to 11.2 from -3.0, a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2601

-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6950.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 16.15. (VIX had fallen earlier in the day, but turned higher around 2pm.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.213% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +12 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

I updated my investment percentages over the weekend. My previous estimate wasn’t very good. The stocks have been doing well (pushing my stock percentage higher) and I have been increasing stock % recently. I am now 80% invested with 18% Bonds and only 2% in cash. This is a very aggressive position for a retiree. It’s perfectly ok for someone 20-30 years old. They have plenty of time to make up losses, but retirees don’t. Retirees must be cautious and avoid losses. With that in mind, I will be taking some profits when the S&P 500 hits the upper trend line of the bearish rising wedge formation. If the Index tracks higher, I can always reset positions.

It’s never wrong to take profits.

The Fed meeting wraps up Wednesday, 28 January. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch, there is a 96% chance that rates will remain unchanged. But, there can still be some market angst around the press conference after the meeting.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 80% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I need to re-calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, January 23, 2026

Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

DEMOCRATS NONPROFIT PROBLEM (WSJ)
“The unfolding debacle in Minneapolis captures an underappreciated fact about the Democratic Party: It is configured to react in unreasoning rage to everything President Trump does. The challenge of “messaging”—how to condemn roundups of illegal migrants without defending protesters’ lawlessness—is only a symptom of the problem. The problem itself arises from the Byzantine network of activist nonprofits created and fostered over the past decade and a half by liberal foundations and progressive billionaires…This is the world wealthy liberals created when they decided climate change and, later, systemic racism and abortion restrictions and Israeli “genocide” were all existential menaces requiring marches and sit-ins and other extrademocratic disruptions. It amounts to a subtler and more effective attack on democracy than anything Mr. Trump has attempted.” - Barton Swain, WSJ Opinion Columnist. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/barton-swaim

LETTERS TO EDITOR (WSJ)
“Ronald Reagan would like a word: ‘Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’
President Trump’s coercion is antithetical to Reaganism, underscoring how he is transforming American conservatism. More important, he’s weakening our economy, national security and the entire free world.” - T. Michael Spencer

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in November 2025 to 97.9 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1% in October to 98.2, down from 98.3 in September…"The US LEI fell again in both October and November," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing. Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026." Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-declined-in-both-october-and-november-302669086.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2 pts to 6916.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.231% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

The 5-10-20 Timer switched back to bullish today. It had been neutral for several days. This indicator could be a stand-alone one. It is bullish when the 5-dMA and the 10-dMA are above the 20-dMA and that’s a good crossover signal. Markets are looking good now.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I need to re-calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Snow … GDP … Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing ... PCE Prices … Consumer Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

CONSUMER SPENDING / PCE PRICES (CNN)
“A shutdown-delayed report from the Commerce Department showed that spending rose 0.5% from October, above economists’ expectations for a 0.4% gain… The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate — rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, which brought the annual rate to 2.8%, unchanged from the September rate that was reported last month.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/22/economy/us-pce-consumer-spending-inflation-october-november

JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“U.S. jobless claims ticked slightly higher last week but remain subdued, signaling little reason to fret that the labor market has worsened abruptly.
The number of people who made fresh filings for unemployment benefits rose to 200,000 in the week through Jan. 17…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobless-claims-show-no-red-flags-401ef600?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfK1ex_2Dd8sDeLqwO5YKjkyLCaO3wde8uXyxUh4IjfMqtzu_nAkHWc6FoIzL8%3D&gaa_ts=6972bcd1&gaa_sig=VCGcZijzm_QyP-aypS1OanmSOSJ8avPDfj8uVAfLxnhanDxvaooUDtlZX0BX9vtessaggF4e-BeP6BsQ4AynFQ%3D%3D

GDP (Real Clear Markets)
“This week’s revision of third-quarter GDP offers early but compelling evidence that the long-awaited Trump manufacturing boom is beginning to take shape… Real GDP growth for the quarter was revised up to a strong 4.4 percent annualized rate.” Story
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/01/22/gdp_data_reveal_green_shoots_for_the_trump_manufacturing_boom_1160331.html

KC FED MANUFACTURING (Kansas City FED)
“Tenth District manufacturing activity was unchanged, and expectations for future activity cooled but remained expansionary. Prices paid for raw materials increased further this month, while finished product prices growth cooled.” Report at…
https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-was-unchanged-in-january/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6913.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.247% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators was unchanged at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

It was another busy day so today’s post is later than usual.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

“You are living in a world in which the Indiana Hoosiers are your college football national champions. I’m not sure how to explain how crazy this is. It’s like going down to the basement and finding the cat singing opera and folding laundry.” – Jason Gay, Sports Columnist, WSJ.

TRUMP BACKS OFF (Yahoo Finance)
“US stocks spiked on Wednesday after President Trump announced the US and NATO "formed the framework of a future deal" on Greenland and called off threatened tariffs on European nations, just days after he roiled markets with the threats.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-surges-550-points-sp-500-nasdaq-jump-as-trump-backs-off-greenland-tariff-threats-210059834.html
My cmt: Wow! The Art of the Deal – Threaten WW III, but settle for bases and operational freedom even though the US already had those capabilities.

“Under a little-known Cold War agreement, the United States already enjoys sweeping military access in Greenland. Right now, the United States has one base in a very remote corner of the island. But the agreement allows it to “construct, install, maintain, and operate” military bases across Greenland, “house personnel” and “control landings, takeoffs, anchorages, moorings, movements, and operation of ships, aircraft, and waterborne craft.” Story at…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/world/europe/trump-greenland-denmark-us-defense-pact.html

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (RTT News)
“The Commerce Department said construction spending climbed by 0.5 percent to an annual rate of $2.175 trillion in October after falling by 0.6 percent to an annual rate of $2.164 trillion in September. Economists had expected construction spending to inch up by 0.1 percent.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3612212/u-s-construction-spending-climbs-much-more-than-expected-in-october.aspx

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 6876.
-VIX declined about 16% to 16.90.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.257% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Trump reversed course again and markets rebounded.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +4 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down a bearish sign, although the upward move of the daily number looks more important.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.

Still, I remain bullish and I added to my SSO position today. It was too late in the day to post before I added to the position.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved, but remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Impeach Trump – Blackmailing Europe is an Act of War … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

It was a busy day so today’s post is later than usual.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

TRUMP THE CLIMATE NONENTITY (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The New York Times is always entertaining when it grapples, or fails to grapple, with climate change, the scale of which simply eludes it.
It says of Donald Trump, “The president’s embrace of fossil fuels . . . will make it hard to keep warming at safe levels.” The reality: U.S. election outcomes are completely invisible in the climate data. Even very large events, such as Covid or the collapse of Soviet industry, at most leave a noticeable indent only on the varying annual rate of emissions increase, not overall atmospheric CO2.

The largest human CO2 event in history, the emergence of China as an industrial power, on an emissions graph appears only as a continuation of an uninterrupted upward trend since the Industrial Revolution… Last April came a small but telling explosion in the climate community. On behalf of the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations, a former John Kerry climate aide, Varun Sivaram, inaugurated a program dedicated to “climate realism.” It conceded many long-obvious points: U.S. emissions have become too small a share of the global total to affect the climate outcome...
…Meanwhile, Mr. Trump at least can hope to be a climate footnote in place of the enlarged role the Times tries to assign him. Ironically, he will share the footnote with his most frothing Democratic critic, Illinois Gov. Jay Pritzker: Both men have been working lately to advance carbon-free nuclear.” – Holman Jenkins, Jr., editorial board of The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-the-climate-nonentity-09e59dff

TRUST ERODES IN GOVERNMENT (WSJ- Letters)
“Karl Rove makes a persuasive case that many of the standard measures used to judge a year—economic growth, employment, inflation, crime—don’t justify the level of public unease (“The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of 2025,” op-ed, Dec. 30). Yet something else lies at the center of that discontent.
Trust erodes when governance appears transactional rather than principled. When pardons, tax policy and access to power seem tied to loyalty or financial benefit, citizens begin to doubt individual decisions and the fairness of the system itself. No amount of messaging will resolve that; only honesty and transparency can.” - Lori Devlin

TRUMP BLACKMAILS EUROPE (BBC)
“Donald Trump has vowed to "100%" follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on European countries who oppose his demand to take control of Greenland. European allies have rallied around Greenland's sovereignty. Denmark's foreign minister emphasised [sic] the US president cannot threaten his way to ownership of the semi-autonomous Danish territory.” Story at…
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5345ylk0o
My cmt: This is an act of war. Trump should be impeached.

TRUMP LINKS GREENLAND THREATS TO MISSING OUT ON NOBEL PRIZE (WSJ)
“Denmark dispatched additional troops to Greenland on Monday as President Trump added a new dimension to his pursuit of the Danish island, telling Norway that he no longer needed to think “purely of peace” after not winning the Nobel Peace Prize.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/trump-links-greenland-threats-to-missing-out-on-nobel-prize-3076eecc?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcUF1tKWuEwCaz2sAu0dmpJvWxDc0KJPSBban8xx4PxpR0DeZaFItEPkQn9x-c%3D&gaa_ts=696fd214&gaa_sig=D4QN5Z-vh3xpQe1XO6XQAjSCKSrFwidFSZipOi9YqsdKD3dA5MJIcaNdcYPYmS7nHdfdTL1DCHX6IvaYdw7dlw%3D%3D’
My cmt: This is an act of insanity. Trump should be institutionalized.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 2.1% to 6797.
-VIX rose about 27% to 20.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.287% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
On Friday there were only 2 bear signs, but they were significant: (1) There was a bearish crossover in MACD. (2) The other was that 100% of the ETF’s I track are now above their 120-dMAs. That often indicates a top, although the indicator is not a timely signal, nor does it tell us if it is an important top.

Additionally, the S&P 500 chart exhibited a rising wedge, a bearish topping signal. Over the weekend, I wrote myself a note – “Sell SSO?” It isn’t good to hold leveraged positions in downturns. Unfortunately, we were Trumped by more Tariffs. I am holding SSO for a day or so to see how this shakes out.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +19 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down a bearish sign.

The 50-dMA is now 6830 and the S&P 500 broke below that level in the afternoon and closed at 6797, about 0.5% below the 50-day. That’s a concern if the index closes below its 50-day Wednesday.

There were a few bullish signs:
-Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.
-Bollinger Bands are oversold.
-Today’s large move down triggered my Panic indicator. At tops, this is a bearish indicator; at bottoms, it is bullish. What is it now? Hard to say, but for now I’ll call it bullish. If the markets continue lower then I’ll have to change my view.

If markets do continue down, the S&P 500 is about 0.8% above its 100-dMA. A drop to the 200-dMA would be a 7% decline.

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 is close to its lower trendline and the 100-dMA. I think markets go up from here. I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested, but I’ll be watching the markets closely. Futures are higher as I write this – let’s hope it stays that way.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I should calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.