PCE Price Index ... Personal Income ... Trump Ends Talks with Canada ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
"I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” – Warren Buffett during a CNBC interview with Becky Quick in 2011.
 
“If politicians stopped meddling with things they don't understand, there would be a more drastic reduction in the size of government than anyone in either party advocates.”- Thomas Sowell
 
"'Bipartisan' usually means that a larger-than-usual deception is being carried out." - George Carlin
 
TRUMP ENDS TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Friday said the United States is immediately “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada” in response to Ottawa’s decision to impose a digital services tax on American tech firms.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/trump-canada-trade-talks-tariffs.html
 
PERSONAL INCOME (WSJ)
“A drop in personal income in May data released Friday is largely attributable to an anomaly in Social Security payments, according to Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Americas.Personal income decreased 0.4% from the prior month in May...” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-inflation-data-06-27-2025/card/personal-income-data-skewed-by-social-security-catch-up-payments-3ZbtrdDHZDFECfMtMRyW?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAidND-yk1NYBX39oSn7feWibnXXi78FIyB5jI33kTofAUbjsXAgBkel60o8Nis%3D&gaa_ts=685ee32b&gaa_sig=mE404gBZ3isSYWjjOJcaK7RagAy9t-6s4eYe6z_AZR_2B5Rm7uwGON5n-jcmfTWy7DsBaK9NNiej3e5fCNaQ2g%3D%3D
 
PCE PRICE INDEX / CORE PCE (Yahoo Finance)
“The ‘core’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 2.7% on an annual basis, above the 2.6% economists had expected... On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased by 2.3%, above the 2.2% increase from the month prior.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-price-increases-accelerated-in-may-123850424.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6173.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.32.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.275% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
  
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
 

Trump’s announcement that he would end trade talks with Canada tanked the markets around mid-day. Cooler heads prevailed in the afternoon as markets staged a late-day rally and closed well above the prior all-time high of 6144. Most of the news was good.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators increased to a very bullish +15 from +13 yesterday (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread turned higher – a bullish sign.
 
Breadth could be better, but it was above 50% for all time-frames I track.  The number of new-52-week highs were below the 5-year average for what we typically see at all-time highs on the S&P 500, but they were well above a number that signals trouble. There was more good news.
 
There were only 5 bear indicators: (1) Bollinger Bands  (2) The S&P 500 is too far ahead of Breadth (3) S&P 500 is outperforming cyclical industrials (XLI) (4) Utilities (XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500 (5) The fifth indicator is a short-term signal: Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
There are some top indicators.  The most important might be Bollinger Bands because it is closely followed.  Bollinger Bands are now overbought, but RSI is not. I use them together so no top warning yet. 
 
I increased stock holdings Friday, based on good signs from indicators, raising my investment in stocks to about 55% of the portfolio.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. Cautiously, because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

ADDING A LITTLE TO STOCK HOLDINGS

I added more XLK to the portfolio at 3PM. Trump announced that the Canada trade talks have ended and that caused the market to tank this afternoon. Indicators looked good at the top so I decided to buy.  My portfolio is now about 55% in stocks. 

Jobless Claims ... GDP ... Durable Goods ... KC FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." – George Carlin
 
"I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” – Warren Buffett during a CNBC interview with Becky Quick in 2011.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Jobless claims for the week ended June 21 dropped 10,000 to 236,000, a historically-low level. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, dipped 750 to 245,000.
Applications for unemployment aid are a proxy for layoffs, and so the decline is evidence that businesses are mostly holding onto their employees.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/fewer-americans-sought-unemployment-benefits-week-layoffs-remain-123226706
 
GDP (CNN)
“Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate.” Story at... 
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/economy/us-gdp-q1-final
 
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (Yahoo Finanec)
“Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, jumped 16.4% last month after a revised 6.6% decline in April...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-soar-131928551.html
 
KC FED MANUFACTURING (Seeking Alpha)
“The Kansas City Manufacturing Composite Index edged up to -2 from -3 in May, but still showed a decline in manufacturing activity, the district Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday.” Story at...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4462864-kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-improves-slightly-but-still-in-contraction-territory
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6141.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.251% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators jumped higher to +13 from +2 yesterday (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread was flat – a neutral sign, but really it bullish since it suggests a turning point.
 
Now that’s more like it. What a difference a day makes. The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE jumped higher by a significant number and are now well above 50%; new-highs are looking much healthier as the S&P 500 nears its prior high; and the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.
 
I’ll consider increasing stock holdings tomorrow if numbers continue to look good.  I’ll post my moves, if any, late in the day.
 
The S&P 500 is about 0.1% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals reversed back to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

New Home Sales ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." – George Carlin
 

MAYDAY ON THE FISCAL TITANIC (WSJ)
“...If the Republicans were serious, why not begin by cutting 3% off every line in the budget, no exceptions, other than interest on the debt? If the Republicans were serious about addressing entitlements, why not start with Medicare, an $850 billion program that exclusively benefits the elderly, the wealthiest cohort of society?
If the Republicans were serious, why not address the single largest federal expenditure, Social Security, which clocks in over $1 trillion? Means test the benefits, and silence the naysayers who complain that they “paid in” by allowing them to collect until they get back as much as they contributed. These kinds of measures may be bold and ambitious, but they are necessary. It isn’t serious merely to rearrange the deck chairs on our fiscal Titanic.” - Kenneth A. Margolis, WSJ Letters.
 
NEW HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Sales of new single-family homes dropped 13.7% in May compared with April... That sales total was 6.3% lower than May 2024...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/may-2025-new-home-sales.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 415.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 6092.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.291% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to Neutral at +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign.
 
The S&P 500 finished unchanged, but internals were surprisingly weak. Declining issues were more than twice advancers; down-volume was 3 times up-volume; the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE finished below 50%; the McClellan Oscillator is negative; and Utilities (XLU) are outperforming the S&P 500. There were others but you get the idea.  
 
There were good signs too, and as noted above, indicators are neutral. I am not particularly concerned, but I try to put extra funds into stocks when conditions are very strong. Today, we got some signs that conditions may not be as good as the price action is suggesting. At 50% invested in stocks, I am fully invested for my risk-tolerance.
 
As markets approach the previous all-time high, breadth is looking weak. We’ll see what happens when markets get to the old high. Hopefully breadth will improve by the time markets get there. We may not have long to wait.  
 
The S&P 500 is about 0.8% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Not Buying Today

I wrote yesterday, that “...S&P 500 is above its lower trendline and there’s plenty of room for it to run before the upper trendline. I may add to my stock allocation Wednesday.” As it turns out, I won’t be adding to stocks today.

Breadth is continuing to weaken.  The 10-dMA of advancing issues on the NYSE fell below 50% today and my Market Internals ensemble switched to SELL.

That’s as of noon, so there could always be improvements to internals by the time markets close, but I won’t add to stocks today in any event.

Consumer Confidence ... Richmond FED Services ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
“When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful & difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.” -  Ricky Gervais
 
IS RIOTING ACCEPTABLE? (WSJ)
“We don’t have s— under control,” a Los Angeles Police Department commander told me on Sunday. “It’s a godsend that the National Guard and the Marines are here.” Officers on the street felt the same way, though the LAPD forbids them to express that view in public, the commander said.
There are two different pictures of what happened in Los Angeles—the official one from California’s elected leaders and the media, and the ground-level view from law enforcement.” - Heather Mac Donald, Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of “When Race Trumps Merit.” Commentary at... 
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-rioting-acceptable-if-so-how-much-06531b5b?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAi2UZBIVm3BHp5u0VFVZx8RN5_6P4kWd4eB0h5PcipNLc06GEvFGENSG-08Nqs%3D&gaa_ts=6858a38c&gaa_sig=XpdZBJPFfZofnr_iwXoobunBhBUiNUjE31fMpDlWEknzegjaO0rD0iIhfPmywVSpQXrlxy0FaXPpC7XV4DOkmg%3D%3D
 
DEMOCRAT APPROVAL FALLS (Sun Herald)
“Quinnipiac University polling published this month revealed a 21% approval rating for Democrats in Congress, which is the lowest point since 2009. Similarly, a CNN/SSRS poll found the party’s favorability at 29%, a record low since 1992. Democrats fear these numbers may signal a troubled future... Quinnipiac University added, ‘Fifty-four percent in the new poll gave Trump a thumbs-down for his handling of his job as president, down one point from the April survey.’" Story at...
Democratic Approval Collapses in New Poll
My cmt: “And I don’t like anybody very much!” – An obscure song reference from a 1959 RIAA gold album.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May... “Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
RICHMOND FED SERVICES (Richmond FED)
“Fifth District service sector activity remained soft in June, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The revenues index increased from −11 to −4 and the demand index ticked up from −8 to −7 in June. The indexes for future revenues and demand increased notably to 20 and 13, respectively.” Press release at...
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sector
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 6092.
-VIX declined about 12% to 17.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.296% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Bullish at +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. While a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line in the above chart) often indicates a declining market, the S&P 500 bounced up from its lower trendline and price trumps the indicators at this point.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
The S&P 500 is above its lower trendline and there’s plenty of room for it to run before the upper trendline. I may add to my stock allocation Wednesday. I suspect Fed Chair Powell’s comment that he may lower interest rates sooner rather later (assuming the data supports it) may boost markets, but all is not perfect with markets.
 
There are some signs of a top, but markets have not made a top yet. Bollinger Bands are overbought, but RSI is not. I use these indicators together. Typically, both Bollinger Bands and RSI must be overbought before we have a top. But as we know, overbought conditions can remain in place for a while so top signals can be early.
 
As markets approach the previous all-time high, breadth is looking weak. We’ll see what happens when markets get to the old high. Hopefully breadth will improve by the time markets get there. We may not have long to wait.   
 
The S&P 500 is about 0.8% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
SUPERMAN IS FOR THE HOSTAGES IN GAZA (WSJ)
“When I first released “Superman (It’s Not Easy)” in April 2001, I couldn’t have imagined it would become an anthem for first responders, men and women in uniform, and the broken everyday people working to heal our country. My song struck a chord because it wasn’t about capes or flying. It was about the vulnerabilities we all share and the burdens we all carry...
...I saw that firsthand when I performed “Superman” at the Concert for New York City on Oct. 20, 2001. I took pride in the American spirit, our resilience after such an atrocity...
...After Hamas massacred and kidnapped innocent Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, I dedicated “Superman” to hostage Alon Ohel, now 24, and all the innocent souls held captive in Gaza...
...I’ve written political music before...I chose a side, and again expected the criticism I received. Yet there is no way to pick a side over Oct. 7. The horrors of that day stand alone. My critics believe that expressing empathy for one group means you must hate another...
...When did we lose the ability to say “I see suffering, and I choose to respond with compassion”? How can anyone be reluctant to say a simple phrase like “Free the Hostages”?...
...Music is where we should be able to meet honestly without enmity. As I sing in “Superman,” I’m not naive. I know a song can’t stop a war, but it can start a conversation. It can open a heart. It can remind us that behind every headline is a human being who bleeds and loves and cries just like we do.” – John Ondrasik, Five for Fighting. Excerpted from WSJ. Full commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/my-2001-hit-song-superman-is-for-the-hostages-in-gaza-b3f6f739?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgl-84ekfLYm6lwRd34fqG_-8AUJCB__X2F0jMrW1Hne3ybNwBCJ6Ada_HulrE%3D&gaa_ts=6858a09a&gaa_sig=JeGFWNeLGU13Ctbi-_nP_G6kFfe544qlWVhdZEVsXCH9xPgETmstD8xCtZQcIkph9iNyGIt-esXrXkWURM83vA%3D%3D
Five for Fighting, “Superman, It’s Not Easy” from YouTube at...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRz4FY0ZcwI
 
THE +500 RASI (McClellan Financial Publications)
“The strong breadth since the April 8, 2025 tariff crash low has produced a new all-time high for the NYSE's daily A-D Line.  It has also taken the the Ratio-Adjusted Summation Index (RASI) up above the important +500 threshold.  These two conditions are almost always a recipe for uptrend continuation.  This time might be different...

“...This one is not a perfect pattern analog, but then I have never seen a perfect one.  There are just varying degrees of how good a comparison is, and this one is quite good.  If the similarity persists, then we should see a drop to a low at the end of June, followed by a brief spike rally and then more selling into late July to early August.
2022 serves as an example of the principle that even a strong breadth signal can fail.  It is possible.  And for the moment we are seeing the market trace out similar dance steps to what we saw in 2022, so it is time to be watchful for falling prices.” - Tom McClellan. Editor, The McClellan Market Report. Commentary / analysis at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_500_rasi_might_actually_be_different_this_time/
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (Real Estate News)
“Though there was an uptick in existing home sales as spring progressed, last month was still the slowest for the month of May since 2009... "The relatively subdued sales are largely due to persistently high mortgage rates. Lower interest rates will attract more buyers and sellers to the housing market," Yun [NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun] said in a June 23 news release.” Story at
https://www.realestatenews.com/2025/06/23/high-rates-prices-keep-existing-home-sales-muted
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 6025.
-VIX declined about 4% to 19.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.342% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained in Neutral territory at +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA of the spread continued down – a bearish sign. While a breakdown of the 10-dMA of Spread (purple line in the above chart) often indicates a declining market, the S&P 500 bounced up from its lower trendline and price trumps the indicators at this point.
 
Iran attacked the US airbase in Quatar, but they gave a warning to Qutar first to limit loss of life. Investors have decided that Iran’s low-key response suggests there won’t be an escalation that will further involve the US. 
 
I’m still looking for new highs, but we’ll see. The S&P 500 is about 1.9% below its all-time high of 6144 on 19 February and it has been in this zone for a while.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral, but expecting to be more bullish soon.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-r
anking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.