… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.” - Thomas Sowell
  
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
ALMOST TIME TO SELL? (Market Insider)
Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator, which measures investor positioning and takes into account factors like market technicals, flashes a "buy" signal when investors are extremely bearish, and vice-versa. In a note to clients on Friday, analysts at the bank said they had recently revamped the indicator to better reflect factors like market structure, investor liquidity, and the risk preferences of investors. The gauge is now hovering just below a sell signal.” Story at…
A contrarian indicator that flashed before the November stock plunge is edging toward another sell signal
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.1% to 6827.
-VIX rose about 6% to 15.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.186% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +15 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign. 
 
There was high, unchanged-volume Wednesday and Thursday. I’ve been ignoring this signal since it isn’t correct very often. Let’s hope it’s not correct this time; it is sending a bearish signal.
 
The S&P 500 is 1% above its 50-dMA.  That is where the lower trend line is typically located, so there is no reason to be concerned by the drop today. If the trend continues down, then it may be time to worry, but the size of today’s drop was actually bullish in the short term.
 
Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
"Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week by the most since the onset of the pandemic, underscoring the volatile nature of claims at this time of year. Initial claims increased by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ended Dec. 6..." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-claims-jump-most-135138504.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6901.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.96.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.149% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +20 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign. 
 
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today. This is an opportunity to check the health of the market. 8.6%of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. The average is 6.7%. We also note that 54% of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2-weeks. These indicate good breadth suggesting markets can go higher. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Fed Meeting … JOLTS Job Openings … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
CAN’T THEY READ IN WASHINGTON (MSN)
“I sold all my U.S. stocks recently, because I’ve seen this party before,” he [Jim Rogers]  said in an interview with Wealthion. “You see a lot of new people talking about how much fun it is, how easy it is … I hope it stays easy to make money for lots of people for the rest of history — [but it] never has…“My advice is, be very, very careful wherever you think about investing. This is a rare time in investing history,” - Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests, Inc., co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management.
‘Can’t they read in Washington?’: Jim Rogers sells off US stock, warns the Federal Reserve can’t ‘save us.’ How to protect yourself
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (Reuters)
“U.S. job openings increased marginally in October after surging in September, but subdued hiring and the lowest level of resignations in five years underscored the economic uncertainty that economists have largely blamed on tariffs.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-job-openings-increase-modestly-october-2025-12-09/
 
FED MEETING
The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, cut to its overnight lending rate, bringing the targeted range to between 3.5% and 3.75%...At a news conference following the decision, Chair Jerome Powell said it was a “close call.”
“I could make a case for either side,” he told reporters…David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation [said]…“Powell threaded the needle again at a time when the Fed is dealing with major pressures. This gives policymakers time to get caught up on the economic data after the shutdown.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6887.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.133% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 1 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
 

It’s obvious when the Fed announced its decision to lower rates by 25 basis points – 2pm. Markets moved higher and so did my indicators.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +14 to +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.  It doesn’t get much better than this.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.1% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
U.S. TO SELL HIGH PERFORMING NVIDIA CHIPS TO CHINA? (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Monday said Nvidia will be allowed to ship its H200 artificial intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China and elsewhere, on the condition that the U.S. gets a 25% cut.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/trump-nvidia-h200-sales-china.html
My cmt: The H200 has been surpassed by the Blackwell B100 and B200, however, the H200 is a powerful chip and it is questionable whether it should be sold to our enemies. Before WWI, the U.S. sold huge quantities of scrap steel to Japan. Need we remind readers what Japan did with those purchases.
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
“The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led the overall contraction in the Index…The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown. Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026.” Report at… 
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6841.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.182% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +17 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.7% below its all-time high.
 
The Fed meeting wraps up tomorrow; should be interesting.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. 

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.” 

THE MINNESOTA SOMALI FRAUD (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Some 86 individuals have been charged with defrauding Medicaid and the Federal Child Nutrition Program in Minnesota—yes, literally stealing lunch money from kids…
In one alleged scheme, the outfit Feeding Our Future recruited individuals to set up a network of sham companies and sites that claimed to feed children in the pandemic. The scammers then submitted false invoices and fake attendance rosters to the state. One roster swiped names from a website called “www.listofrandomnames.com.”
After state officials flagged suspect filings, Feeding Our Future cried racial discrimination and the money kept flowing, according to the federal indictment. Individuals in the network then laundered the money to buy luxury vehicles, residential and commercial real estate in Minnesota, real estate in Kenya and Turkey, and other extravagances…In another scheme, a 28-year-old woman allegedly launched a company, Smart Therapy, that claimed to provide one-on-one behavioral therapy to autistic children. She employed relatives with no formal education and recruited parents to enroll their non-autistic kids in her therapy sessions by paying them kickbacks of up to $1,500 a month per child…In another indictment, eight individuals this fall were charged with fraudulently billing Medicaid to help recovering addicts find stable housing…We reported on the Biden Administration’s Medicaid waivers that let states use federal funds to pay for housing, food, transportation, sports fees and even Native American herbal remedies and exorcisms. The Biden team wanted to give states more federal dollars to spend on social services without having Congress appropriate the money…Democrats won’t acknowledge fraud because they want more Americans on the dole. Welfare is central to their political business model. Republicans who make this scandal about immigration are missing the point—and missing an opportunity to educate Americans about the entitlement state grift.” – Editorial Board WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/minnesota-welfare-fraud-feeding-our-future-smart-therapy-immigration-entitlement-state-1af9cce6?mod=editorials_article_pos10

My cmt: All but a handful of those indicted were Somali.

TRUMP PARDONS COCAINE JUAN (WSJ -Excerpt)
“President Trump, like other politicians, sometimes does something unpopular to please his base. But what is the audience for Mr. Trump’s pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández? He was sentenced in 2024 to 45 years in prison, after a federal jury in New York found him guilty of participating in a conspiracy to traffic 400 tons of cocaine to the U.S.” – Editorial Board WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/juan-orlando-hernandez-pardon-donald-trump-drug-trafficking-honduras-49640f5c?mod=editorials_more_article_pos18
My cmt: We’re killing a few drug runners on the high seas and pardoning king-pins? Maybe wants to build a hotel in Honduras.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS 
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6847.
-VIX rose about 8% to 16.66. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.170% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025. 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +16 to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication. (Yesterday’s spread value was adjusted down by 1.)  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.

Repeating:
The strong move higher in the daily indicators and the 10-day spread strongly suggests market weakness is over. The market may be well primed for a Christmas rally. 

The S&P 500 was due for a down day since 9 of the prior 10 days had been up-days. Markets don’t go up forever, so Monday’s down-day was expected and is good for the market. As of today, 8 of the last 10 days have been up. This is a moving average so on each new-day, the last day in the 10-day series is dropped. The last 4 days in the series have been up. This means that the S&P 500 could have 5 more consecutive up-days before this indicator flashes sell again.

The S&P 500 is 0.3% below its all-time high. 

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested. 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
ETFs have been updated for splits. 
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. 
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock. 
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

 
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)  



 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Jobless Claims … Factory Orders ... PCE Inflation … Hegseth … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
HEGSETH FORCED OUT ADMIRAL HOLSEY (WSJ)
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shocked official Washington in mid-October when he announced that the four-star head of U.S. military operations in the Caribbean was retiring less than a year into his tenure.
But according to two Pentagon officials, Hegseth asked Adm. Alvin Holsey to step down, a de facto ouster that was the culmination of months of discord between Hegseth and the officer. It began days after President Trump’s inauguration in January and intensified months later when Holsey had initial concerns about the legality of lethal strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hegseth-asked-top-admiral-to-resign-after-months-of-discord-9e7b357f?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfqcncLBQyRTMm82pEEEDDYDfTZSfRykb0_DJ8Km_mky08McrOTEiK2EnoMspU%3D&gaa_ts=69332794&gaa_sig=xVVUQh4B3HR15z3UVIrjCMZBSmKmTMeZbvyJXS-PhIFe5JhptObZDIGuTKtO2YOKEbNxIO3ya89v8RoVDPd5kA%3D%3D
My cmt: …as we guessed when the news of his retirement was announced. I heard Professor Brad Jacob, Associate Dean for Academic Programs and professor of Constitutional Law at Regent University, state that the entire program of attacking drug boats on the high seas was un-constitutional and illegal. As a religious university, Regent is a conservative school so his opinion is not political.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS
“Employers announced 71,321 layoffs last month, according to a Thursday report from the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The cuts…announced in November 2024…amounted to the highest total for the month since 2022…
…new data from the Department of Labor showed 191,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed in the week ending Nov. 29, down from 218,000 the week prior to reach the lowest level since September 2022.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-market-mixed-bag-jobless-claims-drop-to-3-year-low-but-employers-shed-71000-jobs-in-worst-november-since-2022-124809562.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS
Factory orders rose 0.2% after a ‌downwardly revised 1.3% increase in August, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders ⁠would gain 0.5% ‌after a previously reported 1.4% rebound.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-rise-less-152050560.html
 
PCE INFLATION (CNBC)
“The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate edged down from 2.9% in August.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/05/pce-inflation-report-september-2025.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6870.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.139% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a very BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
Repeating:
The strong move higher in the daily indicators and the 10-day spread strongly suggests market weakness is over. The market may be well primed for a Christmas rally. At the bottom, the S&P 500 never reached its 200-dMA; however, it did manage to bounce higher from its 100-dMA.
 
9 of the last 10 days have been up-days so we can expect a down-day tomorrow or soon. Indicators are strong enough to suggest any weakness should be relatively short-lived.
 
The S&P 500 is 0.3% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
Five of the ETFs I track have split 2 for 1.  I will need to load a lot of data to update my ETF momentum chart - that will take a while.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket
 of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.