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Thursday, July 17, 2025

PBS Funding ... Retail Sales ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy time.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

SENATE APPROVES CUT TO PBS (NPR)
“The Senate has approved the Trump administration's $9 billion rescission package aimed at clawing back money already allocated for public radio and television — a major step toward winding down nearly six decades of federal funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.” Story at...
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/17/nx-s1-5469904/npr-pbs-cuts-rescission-senate-vote
My cmt: Regular readers know that I dislike Criminal Trump. However, I am a staunch fan of the truth. During the conflicts and demonstrations regarding the Confederate statues in Charlottesville, VA, Trump said "You had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides". That is a true statement. There were good people on both sides. There were also racists, Nazis and other white supremacist organizations present. But Trump’s statement was true; it may have been imprudent, but that’s Trump’s calling card. To the issue at hand – Judy Woodruff (Anchor and managing editor of the PBS NewsHour NPR at the time) called Trump a rascist in her newscast covering the demonstrations. That’s where NPR has failed. “News” is reporting what Trump said. Putting a spin on the news by calling Trump a rascist was anti-Trump editorializing.

AND SPEAKING ABOUT THE TRUTH.... (Snopes Fact Check)
“Following the devastating and destructive flash flooding in central Texas on July 4, 2025, users online claimed that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration was ultimately to blame for the flood's 100 deaths due to staffing cuts at the National Weather Service [but according to Snopes, these claims were spurious]. The weather service issued a series of timely alerts: a flood watch early in the afternoon on July 3, a flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. July 4, and a flash flood emergency at 4:03 a.m. July 4, before any in-person reports of flooding had been received.” Story at...
Trump's NWS cuts were blamed for Texas flood deaths. Here are the facts
My cmt: There are plenty of Trump administration issues that are concerning; I find it silly that so many fools continue to lie.
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.” - Henry Ford

PHILLY FED (RTT News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing manufacturing activity in the region unexpectedly expanded overall in the month of July. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity surged to a positive 15.9 in July from a negative 4.0 in June...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3554603/philly-fed-index-surges-to-five-month-high-in-july.aspx

RETAIL SALES (ABC News)
“Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in June...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/retail-sales-surprising-06-june-after-pullback-consumers-123829497

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims for the week ending July 12 fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the fifth straight weekly decline and the fewest since mid-April.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-applications-jobless-benefits-fall-straight-week-hitting-123829495

Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims all positive:
“This is not the recession you are looking for. You can go about your business. Move along.”

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6297.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.443% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Neutral position at zero (Equal numbers of Bear indicators and Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims all positive; Trump isn’t firing Fed chair Powell; market internals looked good today; indicators are back to Neutral and today the S&P 500 made a new high. Investors are throwing off some of their worries suggesting markets can go higher.

3.9% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. I’d prefer that the number was higher, but this is not low enough to give us a correction-warning.

The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE remained below 50%, so we still have a breadth concern.

The S&P 500 climbed above its lower trend line and on some charts (depending on the scale used) it was never below it. That’s a good reason for not acting too quickly when the Index breaks below its trendline and using more than charts for decision making.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, watching indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

PPI ... Industrial Production ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a Bearish position at -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

While the 10-dMA of spread is now falling, the S&P 500 chart as not broken down too badly. It doesn’t look good, but it’s not a disaster either.

Wednesday, there was extremely high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE has dropped below 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues on the NYSE have fallen over the last 2 weeks. That’s the first shoe to drop on breadth. Also, there were only 48 issues that made new 52-week highs on the NYSE Wednesday. That’s a low number, too. We need to see a lot more when/if the S&P 500 makes a new high.

The S&P 500 has broken its lower trendline on successive days, but not by much. Today was an up-day. Let’s see if the Index can break higher tomorrow. I’m trying to avoid being whipsawed, so I’ll wait a little before I make a move with the trading portfolio although there are probably enough bad signs now to reduce stock holdings some.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, but leaning bearish. Further deterioration may cause me to reduce stock holdings back to around 50% depending on indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

CPI ... NY FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT

That’s not a very encouraging daily chart for the S&P 500.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and remained a Neutral position at -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign. “Danger Will Robinson.”

The 10-dMA of spread is now falling and that is not a good sign. It usually signals a drop, but that drop might be small (a few precent) or large (use your imagination). We still don’t expect a drop of more than 10% if a correction was to develop.

The S&P 500 may have broken its lower trendline on successive days. I say “maybe,” because charts depend on the scales used to draw the chart. Spread out the horizontal axis with a longer distance between days and there would be no break of the trendline. I’ll wait a little before I make a move with the trading portfolio.

I’ll just finish this with a quote: “I have a bad feeling about this.”

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral. We are watching the S&P 500 and the lower trendline.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

No Post for Monday

Sorry, no post Monday. Internet problems continue. Indicators are still neutral, so not much change from Friday's post.

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Internet has been spotty. I’ve gotten all the data through the phone, but posting hasn’t been possible. The following is based on Friday’s data.

I’ll continue posting late next week. It’s a busy time.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire

Michael Ramirez, Political commentary at... https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).

HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG (Heritage Capital)
“As I wrote the other day, new highs have been expanding... The NDX...is but a day from new highs. I cannot believe the only pullback we will see has already been seen this week. That seems too little, but would indicate a possible surge to the upside if this goes on much longer. That is not my base case.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital.
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/nasdaq-100-leading-like-a-champ/

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting employers may be holding on to workers despite other indications of a cooling labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended July 4...” Sory at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-unexpectedly-latest-week-2025-07-10/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6260.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.417% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained in a Neutral position at +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed down – a bearish sign.

Ruh-roh. Houston, we have a problem...maybe. The 10-dMA of spread is now falling and that is not a good sign. It usually signals a drop, but that drop might be small (a few precent) or large (use your imagination). The good news (sort-of) is that breadth was decent at the recent all-time high (last Thursday) and so were new-highs. That has limited corrections to 10% or less in the past.

I don’t have a very good crystal ball for short-term calls, but we can watch the lower trendline. The S&P 500 closed at the lower trendline Friday. If that support level fails significantly, then we can suspect a correction is likely. The key word is “significantly.” What the heck does that mean? Some say that any break below the trendline is significant. I prefer different signals. There are a couple of tells for significant breaks in trend: (1) Two successive closes below the trend line (2) a break 3% below the trendline. Either, but not both, are good enough for me.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral. We are watching the S&P 500 and the lower trendline.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, July 11, 2025

No Post Thursday

Internet was down so no post for Thursday. I did get most of the data I use from my phone. Data showed little change in indicators. Hopefully I'll be posting Friday's Blog tonight, or Saturday.

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.

The S&P 50 again closed very near its lower trend line. We don’t want to see the lower trendline broken. On the other hand, as we have noted earlier, the S&P 500 has been exhibiting a parabolic rose. It would be a good sign if the rate of advance on the S&P 500 slowed to a more normal climb. So, I won’t get too wound-up if the lower trendline is broken.

All-in-all, things look generally bullish, although futures Wednesday night are down about 0.25% as I write this.

BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)