... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy time.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
JUSTICE KAGAN WON 70% OF THE TIME (WSJ – EXCERPT)
“Here’s a figure that might surprise: Justice Elena Kagan, the Supreme Court’s leading liberal, was in the majority of 70% of this term’s non-unanimous outcomes. To compare, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, stout conservatives, were each at 62%, tied with Justice Sonia Sotomayor. They were a tick above Justice Neil Gorsuch’s 61%...
...42% of rulings this year were unanimous...Only 9% of cases overall, six total, resulted in ideologically split 6-3 outcomes, with the liberal Justices dissenting as a bloc... The point of such statistics isn’t to obfuscate that this is a conservative Court, the best in living memory. That’s true. Yet two-thirds of cases this term weren’t closely divided, and the originalist Justices all have jurisprudential idiosyncrasies, resulting in 6-3 and 5-4 cases with scrambled lineups that confound partisan politics. That’s what doing the law looks like.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/supreme-court-term-elena-kagan-unanimous-rulings-d1a67bc7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiTVWRrnnskRHF1hcLebZ-_kYEXwouWT0eFTNIfjJ-Jd3ZaZUOydKYIeWwPgH4%3D&gaa_ts=68698153&gaa_sig=9-qi0Ev-kBD2favfM8oDVR8TiqlaMLNAZaE1NYAcmG7q2UphQ0dbLWQeqzxKVjRCA2ajNKISe3A4eXtX3-2YsQ%3D%3D
 
USA DEBT: 122.5% OF GDP (msn)
“The US sits on the biggest public debt pile in the world. Government liabilities amount to a bewildering $36.2 trillion, which is more than double what runner-up China owes. To highlight the scale, the interest payments exceed what America spends on both defense and Medicare.
With US national debt on an unsustainable path, efforts to cut government spending have been made, chiefly by Elon Musk's controversial DOGE, though the initiative hasn't saved all that much in real terms. And of course Musk and President Trump have fallen out spectacularly over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which will inflate the nation's debt, directly contradicting DOGE's goals.” From...
How Deep in Debt is America Compared to Other Countries?
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 6230.
-VIX rose about 9% to 17.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.387% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved slightly and remained bullish at +17 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.
 
The Indicator-spread improved on a down-day today? Yes, primarily because the Bollinger Band indicator switched to neutral.
 
The financial press was reporting markets were down because of Trump’s latest tariff announcement. (He’ll reinstate some tariffs on 1 August.) Could be, so we may be in for some volatile trading, though it seems highly unlikely we’ll see anything like the April panic-selling and the associated 19% decline.
 
As for now, one down-day doesn’t tell us much especially when the indicators improved.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.