Small Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy time.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX).
 
USA DEBT: 122.5% OF GDP (msn)
“The US sits on the biggest public debt pile in the world. Government liabilities amount to a bewildering $36.2 trillion, which is more than double what runner-up China owes. To highlight the scale, the interest payments exceed what America spends on both defense and Medicare.
With US national debt on an unsustainable path, efforts to cut government spending have been made, chiefly by Elon Musk's controversial DOGE, though the initiative hasn't saved all that much in real terms. And of course Musk and President Trump have fallen out spectacularly over the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which will inflate the nation's debt, directly contradicting DOGE's goals.” From...
How Deep in Debt is America Compared to Other Countries?
My cmt: Maybe that’s why we have the following:
 
MUSK SAYS HE’S FORMED THE AMERICA PARTY (PBS)
“Elon Musk has said that he’s formed a new political party, but it’s unclear what steps — if any — he’s taken to do so, or how the effort might affect upcoming elections... The possible new political party marks another development in the rift between Musk and President Donald Trump over the Republican’s sweeping tax cuts law, which the tech billionaire has called ‘insane.’” Story at...
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/musk-says-hes-formed-the-america-party-heres-what-to-know
 
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
"The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained steady in June, edging down 0.2 of a point to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98... “Small business optimism remained steady in June while uncertainty fell,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Taxes remain the top issue on Main Street, but many others are still concerned about labor quality and high labor costs.” Report at...
https://www.nfib.com/news/news/new-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-steady-in-june-5/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6226.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.411% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, but remained bullish at +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign.
 
The S&P 50 closed approximately at its lower trend line. We don’t want to see the lower trendline broken. On the other hand, as we have noted earlier, the S&P 500 has been exhibiting a parabolic rose. It would be a good sign if the rate of advance on the S&P 500 slowed to a more normal climb. (Where’s my editor when I need one?) So, I won’t get too wound-up if the lower trendline is broken.
 
Tuesday, advancing-issues outpaced declining-issues almost 2 to 1.  That usually is followed by an up-day. Futures are flat as I write this so, no help there in guessing tomorrow’s action.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously Bullish. “Cautiously,” because of tariffs and their impact on inflation.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.