Tom
Benis blogged in the Wall Street Journal, “The Tell” those are “ugh-ly numbers
indeed.”
He quoted Ed Yardeni who wrote, “…the growth rate in corporate tax
receipts is highly correlated with the (year over year) percentage change in S&P 500
operating earnings…The tax revenue data strongly suggest that profits growth is
slowing towards single digits.”
The year over year (comparing this August to last August) growth
in corporate profit tax receipts is up 11.7%, but that is much lower than
January when year-over-year gains were 60.9%.
The
S&P 500 was up 1.4% today, Wednesday.
The
Navigate the Stock Market analysis switched back to HOLD today as Modified
on-balance volume drifted back to hold. (See
the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this
page).
The
VIX indicator remains very bearish position.
Sentiment has been low for a month and the NTSM Sentiment indicator was
only 16% bulls today. That is the kind
of low value that may indicate a bottom if it persists. On the other hand, I am always concerned that
sometimes the herd is right.
I sold on the 27 July sell signal at S&P 500 1301 and I am
defensively positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in
stocks. (Zero stocks in the 401k.) I am
near 100% short in the trading portfolio.
