Saturday, June 8, 2013

Correction Over?

Reviewing numbers last night, I noticed that a short term new-high/new-low stat has turned upward.  We also observed that volume at the low on Wednesday was lower than at the prior low.  These stats alone were certainly not enough to signal “correction over” - they were no better than the stats on 24 May (another lower low).  The only difference is that the low last Wednesday was at the bottom trend-line (formed by connecting the lows in the ascending S&P 500 trend since November – shown BLUE below).   

The S&P 500 has bounced to its upper descending trend-line (shown RED below), if we are indeed in a descending trend.  Further upward movement from here will show that the S&P is not in a down trend.

We’ll have to wait for Monday, but a positive close might indicate an end to this phase of the correction and drag out the topping process further.  The S&P 500 is still 9.9% above its 200-day, moving average so any movement upward is not likely to be long lived.  The odds favor that we go down from here…but we’ll see.

(The BLUE graph with square data points is the daily output of the NTSM analysis.)