“The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI™ registered 49 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from April's reading of 50.7 percent, indicating contraction in manufacturing for the first time since November 2012 and only the second time since July 2009. This month's PMI™ reading is at its lowest level since June 2009, when it registered 45.8 percent.” Full press release from ISM at…
…By my count we are now in our fourth “Recovery Summer.” The recession was officially (and mistakenly) declared over in June 09. Yet, no data series in economics not influenced drastically by liquidity and a zero interest rate policy (e.g., stock prices and home prices) supports the claim.
…One has to wonder just how many summers it takes to add up to a recovery. Other than the Great Depression, no recovery has taken this long and this recovery has not taken yet.
…A good case can be made for the fact that there is no recovery and that we are just beginning our decline….Whether you accept this conclusion or not, don’t be fooled by the performance of the stock market. There is little other than inflationary Fed policy to justify financial asset prices." Full opinion at..
Monday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.6% to 1640 (rounded). The market fell about one-half percent when the ISM number was reported, but clawed its way back toward the end of the day. Almost the entire gain occurred in the last hour of trading.
VIX fell 0.1% to 16.28.
The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)