"We've gone from being out-of-consensus bulls from the end of last year to out-of-consensus bears by the middle of this year, without having changed our outlook on the market at all," Subramanian said Wednesday at the firm's second-half outlook media briefing...”
MarketWatch: What is your assessment of the economy and do you think the Fed should start to taper?
Stern: I think the economy has picked up a bit of momentum. If you think about the last 12 months, I think the preponderance of surprises have been on the positive side. They haven’t been huge, but they’ve been positive...
…As far as the timing of the tapering, I personally think this would not be a bad time to start. But… I would not be surprised if the Fed delayed any tapering for a while here.
MarketWatch: …most economists think there will be a reduction in the pace of asset purchases by the end of the year. It seems you agree?
Stern: That is a good bet as long as the economy continues on its current course or even picks up a bit more from here.” Interview at…
‘Stress will appear in the weakest parts of the financial sector, which tend to be non-bank financial institutions on the fringe of the system - and gradually work its way inward,’ she predicted…The foreign owners of stakes in Chinese banks already saw big writedowns on those stakes in the 2008 financial crisis and this could happen again...” Story at…
Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed down about 0.8% to 1613 (rounded).
The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)