“The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning [Tuesday]…The 79.7 reading is slightly below the 79.9 forecast by Investing.com. The index is now 2.5 points off its five-and-a-half year interim high set in June. Or, to put it another way, the index is 10.9 points below the December 2007 pre-recession level.” Good discussion and analysis from Advisor Perspectives at…
… "simply the fact that we moved from 1.6 [percent] on the 10-year Treasury rate to now the 2.7 [percent] range is a potential tremendous shock over the next six months," Adams contended…Couple the rise in rates with slow earnings growth, and Adams believes the market is in for a very tricky fall. "We're going to have to face the music come October," she said.” Story at…
Tuesday, the S&P finished down 0.26% to 1697 (rounded) at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540). The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!) I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up. No system is perfect.