“U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in August even as demand increased for automobiles and other big-ticket items, the latest sign that economic growth slowed in the third quarter…Stripping out automobiles, gasoline and building materials, so-called core sales were up 0.2 percent after rising 0.5 percent in July. Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.’ Story from Reuters at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-retail-sales-idUSBRE98C0IA20130913
Briefing.com reported the consensus number to be 0.4%. This relates to an analysis by Mike Lombardi
posted on Advisor Perspectives that I linked on 11 September, titled: RETAILERS’
DWINDLING FORTUNES: SLOWDOWN AHEAD? See…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/09/topping-concerns1987-again.html
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX – MIXED BAG (Bloomberg Econoday)
“Producer prices accelerated in August on food and
energy. The August producer price index rose 0.3 percent after no change in
July. Analysts forecast a 0.2 percent gain. The core rate, which excludes both
food and energy, was flat after a 0.1 percent rise in July. Expectations were
for a 0.1 percent increase.” From
Econoday at…http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=456120&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2013&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp
BOND CEF’S SAY LIQUIDITY IS IN TROUBLE (McClellan
Financial Publications)
“Earlier this year, the closed end bond funds were saying
that the market was in trouble due to liquidity problems. That message
continues even now without improvement, and provides a message to us that more
trouble lies ahead…The SP500 bottomed on Aug. 27, 2013, and has bounced up 3.3%
since then. But the bond CEF A-D Line has not shown any inclination to join in
that rally. That says liquidity is not yet restored, even though the big-cap
stocks can still mount a rally. The runts are going hungry.” – Tom McClellan. Analysis at…http://decisionpoint.com/TAC/MCCLELLAN.html
ART CASHIN – RALLY RUNNING OUT OF STEAM (CNBC)
“Art Cashin says the stock market's rally appears to be
running out of steam, or at least taking a well-deserved pause. Cashin, UBS' director of floor operations at
the NYSE, told CNBC's Bob Pisani around midday [Thursday] that "we're heavily overbought, metrics
like the McClellan Oscillator
are going into the stratosphere. That doesn't mean we have to turn (lower) but
you're entitled to at least a pause here and I think you're going to get
it." Video at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/101030247
THE PERFECT STORM (MarketWatch)
Syria,
next week's Fed meeting and the upcoming debt ceiling battle set up a perfect
storm for global financial markets…Sept. 17-18 brings the
long-awaited Federal Reserve meeting, Bernanke press conference and the
anticipated beginning of the end for quantitative easing. ..Within the next two
to four weeks, the contours and impact of the perfect storm will become more
defined and will likely set the stage for a significant market move in one
direction or other.” Opinion at…http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-perfect-storm-2013-09-11
Hmmm. If everyone
thinks the markets will go down – they usually go up!
Of course there are some wackos who have a solution for the economy and the markets…
There are some in the Blogosphere who claim we need a war
to get the economy going. Do they think this
is 1945? At the end of WWII the US had
no competition. Europe and Russia were
in ruins. Japan was not an economic
power and China was a feudal society. Only the US retained a manufacturing
capability. Does anyone really think
that conditions in 1945 are comparable to current economic realities? Apparently, yes.
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P finished up 0.27% to 1688 (rounded) at the close.
VIX fell 1% to 14.16.Friday, the S&P finished up 0.27% to 1688 (rounded) at the close.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks
advancing on the NYSE was unchanged at 55% at the close. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally good news for the market.)
New-highs outpaced new-lows today, Friday,
leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +33 (it was +68 Thursday), with
the 10-day moving average of change in spread falling, but it is still positive...just
barely.
The Internals are positive on the market in
the short term.
NTSM
Friday, the overall long-term NTSM analysis remains HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540). The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!) I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up. No system is perfect.
