“Earnings Scorecard…With 19% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results, the percentage of companies reporting earnings above estimates is below the four-year average, and the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates is also below the four-year average.” - Factset earnings Insight 18 October 2013
CMT: The expectations have been lowered so much that these weak results seem to reflect significant slowing. Guidance shows the same, so far, but it is early in the earnings reporting season, so we’ll see.
“[A] High Percentage of Companies Have Issued Negative EPS Guidance (78%) for Q4. At this early stage of Q3 2013 earnings season, 18 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the fourth quarter. Of these 18 companies, 14 have issued negative EPS guidance and 4 have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, the percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance to date for the fourth quarter is 78% (14 out of 18). This percentage is well above the 5-year average of 63%.” Excerpted from the Factset Earnings Insight for 18 Oct 2013 found at…
When this value has reached about 10% above the 200-dMA the S&P 500 has corrected, although this year the corrections have been shallow, so far.
Monday, the S&P finished slightly up, but basically unchanged to 1645 (rounded) at the close.
Market Internals remain Positive on the market for this short term indicator, but VIX was up and Breadth poor today so it suggests a small down-day for tomorrow.