”…we continue to view economic activity as much closer to the border of recession than is widely appreciated. New unemployment claims tend to reach their lows at bull market highs, and are not useful as forward-looking indicators. Moreover, we’ve observed a collapse in the correlation between historically more reliable leading measures (purchasing managers indices, Fed surveys) and subsequent economic outcomes over the past few years (see When Economic Data is Worse than Useless). Probably the most straightforward approach is to cut straight to key measures such as real GDP and real final sales, where year-over-year growth is already below the levels at which recessions have typically started. Given the predictive breakdown in a whole host of measures, it’s not clear that we should draw strong predictive conclusions from this evidence either. Still, it should be evident that the U.S. economy remains at levels of activity that have historically bordered recession. Doug Short always offers useful perspective on a wide range of data. The chart below is no exception.” - John Hussman, Phd. Weekly Market Commentary from Hussman Funds at…
Chart from Advisor Perspectives:
22 REASONS TO BE CONCERED ABOUT THE US ECONOMY…(ZeroHedge)
A few of the 22 follow:
“#1. According to Gallup, we have just seen the largest drop in U.S. economic confidence since 2008.
#8. Overall, corporations announced the elimination of 387,384 jobs through the first nine months of this year.
#9. The number of announced job cuts in September 2013 was 19 percent higher than the number of announced job cuts in September 2012.
#17. Obamacare is causing health insurance premiums to skyrocket and this is reducing the disposable income that consumers have available.
#18. Median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row.”
Commentary from ZeroHedge at…
Tuesday, the S&P finished down 0.7% to 1698 (rounded) at the close.