“According to the September jobs report, which was delayed 18 days by the government shutdown, hiring slowed last month…Employers added 148,000 jobs in September, fewer than the 193,000 jobs added in August, the Department of Labor reported. But the good news is the unemployment rate fell to 7.2% as 73,000 people joined the labor force and 133,000 people said they got jobs. That's considered encouraging, after months in which thousands of Americans were dropping out of the workforce...
...Economists called the report a ‘mixed bag,’ ‘underwhelming’ and ‘disappointing.’” Story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/22/news/economy/september-jobs-report/
“…nearly two thirds of all jobs created in September…were truck drivers,
bureaucrats, salespeople and temps.” – ZeroHedge at…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-22/where-september-jobs-were-truck-drivers-bureaucrats-salesmen-and-temps
For extensive analysis of the Payroll/Unemployment data
see Global Economic Trend Analysis at…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
STILL THINK IT’S ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS?
Check out the interesting series of charts from
ZeroHedge. They show the S&P diverging from just about everything, except…the
Federal Reserve balance sheet. Charts at…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-22/spot-odd-one-out
There are a number of topping indicators and stories
recently (in addition to the ones shown in the ZeroHedge commentary above) that
indicate the party is nearly over for stocks.
Here are a few:
TOPPING INDICATOR #1
ANALYSIS: REPEATEDLY BURNED SHORT SELLERS (Reuters)
“Shorts have become gun-shy as the market has continued
to rally, making bets against high-flying stocks like Netflix or Tesla very expensive ones.
Steep losses have been amplified by "short squeezes," where shorts
are forced to cover their bets to prevent further losses… "The people who
have tried to short have been annihilated up to this point. I'm sure some is
still going on, but they're being very cautious. Even gambling that there will
be corrections after earnings has become risky," said
Angel Mata, managing director of listed equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus
Capital Markets in Baltimore.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/us-usa-stocks-shorting-analysis-idUSBRE99K0K820131021
“TOPPING” INDICATOR #2
MARGIN DEBT (Advisor perspectives at dShort.com)
MARGIN DEBT (Advisor perspectives at dShort.com)
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php
TOPPING INDICATOR #3
Tuesday, the S&P 0.6% to 1755 (rounded) at the close.
VIX was up another 1% to 13.33. (There is some option buying counter to the up-trend in stocks.)
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing is 65%. (A
number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the
market.)
New-highs outpaced new-lows Tuesday, leaving the spread
(new-hi minus new-low) at +405 (it was +322 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the
spread is plus 42.
Market Internals remain Positive on the market for this short term indicator.
NTSM system switched to HOLD because the market action is too bullish. I expect a pullback soon, though it may not be a big decline. There are certainly enough issues though that could indicate a larger decline; there just isn’t an obvious catalyst.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March
(S&P 500 -1540). The NTSM system
sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just
another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally
– I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!) I have no problems leaving 20% or 30%
invested. If the market is cut in half
(worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I
will have some invested if the market goes up.
No system is perfect. 
