“Unexpected Happens Again
-Which followed a Huge Miss in ISM;
Largest Decline in New Orders in 4 Years
-Which followed a Big Miss: Nonfarm
Payrolls +74,000 vs. 205,000 Expected in January
Don't worry, it's the weather.”
Commentary from Mish Shedlock, Global Economic Analysis at…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/industrial-production-declines-november.html
Commentary from Mish Shedlock, Global Economic Analysis at…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/industrial-production-declines-november.html
TRUCKING KEEPS ON…DECEMBER TONNAGE GAIN CAPS ATA INDEX’S BEST YEAR SINCE 1998 (American Trucking Assoc.)
“The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.6% in December, after surging 4.7% in November. The increase pushed the index 6.2% higher for the full year making it the index's best year since 1998.” Press release available at...
That doesn’t look like a slowdown in the economy to me.
BYRON WIEN EXPECTS 20% GAIN FOR 2014 (CNBC)
Stocks appear poised to post continued strong returns, with the S&P 500 on track to gain 20 percent in 2014, Blackstone Advisory Partners Vice Chairman Byron Wien said Friday. "I said at the beginning of the year I thought the market was poised for a selloff. My feeling was that sentiment was too positive. Everybody made money last year, no matter what you owned. You may not have kept up with the S&P 500, but you logged in a good profit by year end," he said on CNBC's "Halftime Report."
While the market could still correct, Wien said that the
case for equities was still strong.” Video and story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101418210MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up 0.1% to 1840 (rounded).
VIX was UP about 2% to 13.87.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.71%.
Market Internals continue to be very positive and this suggests further gains ahead. Internals were far more positive than the S&P 500 Index today and that could send the index higher. The index has climbed about 100 points or about 6% in 2-weeks. Some slowing of the rate of climb or sideways movement would be expected now and perhaps that is why the VIX was up today too.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing rose to 67%
at the close. (A number above 50% for
the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs outpaced new-lows Tuesday, leaving
the spread (new-highs minus new-lows) at +195. (It was +129 Friday). The 10-day moving
average of change in the spread was +27. In other words, over the last 10-days,
on average, the spread has increased by 27 each day. Up volume broke its down
trend last week and continues up.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The NTSM system remained HOLD today, Tuesday, but they
did improve. The first Sell signal of
this cycle was just over 2-weeks ago on 24 January. The Volume indicator is now
positive. Sentiment, Price and VIX indicators are all neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I am about 40% invested in stocks because I upped my
stock holdings by 10% on 12 February (S&P 500-1819) based on Market
Internal signals. This is a conservative
allocation, but putting a bit more into stocks recognizes that the market
internals are improving on the S&P 500 and the “correction” may once again
confound the bears. Can you say March?
I’ll reassess at the end of the month and add more or pull some out depending
on indicators.
