“Consumer sentiment dipped modestly in early March, entirely due to reduced expectations for the future, a survey said on Friday. The preliminary Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan overall index of consumer sentiment fell to 79.9 in March, down from the 81.6 final reading in February. That was below analyst expectations for a reading of 82 and the lowest level for that index since November.” Story at…
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2014/03/14/consumer-sentiment-dips-in-march/
Briefing.com suggested that the
drop in sentiment was meaningless since as long as jobs keep increasing, then
there will be more spending. Summary and
charts at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/mich.htm
NIKKEI SUGGESTS TROUBLE FOR THE
US MARKETS (Chris Kimble posted at Advisor Perspectives)
"The prior two times the Nikkei broke down from this
pattern at resistance, in time the S&P 500 followed it…[keep] your eye on
this leading index, because continued weakness by the Nikkei could impact the
S&P 500.” Chart and commentary at…
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was down 0.3% to 1841 (rounded). VIX rose about 10% to 17.8.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained at 2.65%.
VIX was up a lot today and that’s usually not good for the markets. Market internals remained poor. It looks to me that we are seeing a renewal of the correction that started 31 December at S&P 500 1848. The Index only got 2% above 1848 in the last 10-weeks and seems to have stalled with the most recent high of 1878.
As I noted yesterday, it is hard to know whether this is
just another false alarm move back to the 50-dMA at 1829 or the lower trend
line (now around 1780). The 200-dMA is 1736,
about 6% below today’s close and that is a support point. Of course anything is possible based on news
related to China’s economics or geo-politics related to Ukraine. Meaningful sanctions against Russia will be
harmful to the stock markets, as I noted earlier.
For the day, advancing stocks outpaced declining stocks
with 58% advancing. That’s a bit of a
surprise that most stocks on the NYSE were advancing while the S&P 500
declined. The majority usually wins, so
baring bad news, Monday would be expected to be an up-day. This weekend will be news-worthy with the
Crimean election. It is expected that
they will vote to join Russia so this is a story to follow.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing fell slightly
but remained at 49% at the close. (A
number below 50% for the 10-day average is generally bad news for the market.) New-highs outpaced new-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows was +12
. (It was +27 Thursday). The 10-day
moving average of change in the spread was minus-19. In other words, over the
last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 19 each day. The 10-dMA
of up-volume continues to fall. The
internals remain negative on the market.
NTSM
The NTSM system remained SELL, Friday based on 2-indicators:
Sentiment at 80%-bulls and VIX that has been rising recently and was up another
10% or so today. Volume and Price
indicators are neutral. VIX is at its upper
trend line, so if VIX breaks higher than 18 next week it would be another clue
that this is really a correction.
