“China’s economy slowed this quarter, with industries including retail and mining showing weaker revenue growth while loans through non-traditional channels became more expensive, according to a private survey. Even with the moderation, the labor market and wage growth were little changed from the previous quarter…” Story at…
Not long ago this would have been enough to cause worry in the US markets. Everyone is used to it by now. China is slowing…so what?
IS A CRASH COMING?
Response from a trader board: “How could it be otherwise? The markets are heavily margined, the Fed is tapering, and the economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate. Watch China.”
LEADING INDICATORS UP (Briefing.com)
“[Yesterday] The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators increased 0.5% in February after increasing a downwardly revised 0.1% (from 0.3%) in January. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase 0.3%....In general, the index shows that the economic situation is accelerating.” Story and charts at…
THE TOP WILL BE 1931 (Fortune)
“Tom DeMark, CEO of DeMark Analytics,…[t]he market timing precisionist who famously called the S&P 500's 2011 bottom within a point or so, months before it happened, told Fortune this week that the bull had just a few days left to live…"Its pretty clear that this next rally, the one we're currently in, will be a good top," DeMark says. "And it looks like it's going to be a pretty important top that should last at least three months." During that time, brace for a decline of at least 11%, he adds.” Story at…
SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA (CNN/Money)
“Moscow's MICEX index fell more than 2% -- taking its losses for the year to 14%. The ruble was steady, after dipping early in the day, but has still lost about 10% since the start of the year.” Story at…
While it is not clear that sanctions caused of the market retreat, it is interesting. I for one won’t be buying any Russian ETF’s. Remember, the Putin regime was caught rigging the first election, so it took 2 to make him supreme leader.
I reduced to 30% invested in stocks because of the NTSM sell signal on 13 March. This is a conservative stock allocation commensurate with the NTSM Sell signal. Leaving 30% invested hedges the bet in case NTSM is wrong – no system is perfect. I will return to 50%-stock allocation if the Market Internals of the NTSM indicators turn positive. Internals could still turn positive soon, but it all depends on the market.