“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected and hit a three-month low last week, a sign of strength in a labor market that has been hobbled by severe weather.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since the end of November and the drop more than unwound the prior week's rise…the drop in new filings for jobless benefits suggests labor market fundamentals remain strong.” Story at…http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/us-jobless-claims-tumble-to-three-month-idUSBREA2512820140306
CRESTMONT PE - 1929 AND THE DOT.COM BUBBLE
As Doug's chart shows, the only time that Crestmont P/E has been above 25 was during the dot.com bubble and Aug-Sep of 1929. The Crestmont PE adjusts earnings similar to Robert Shiller's methods in calculating PE. For a full discussion of the Crestmont PE see... http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-PE-Report.pdf
YES: “CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, says the index's earnings are going to keep it from reaching the 2,000 level…"The issue that I have with 2,000 is the P/E that it would take to get us to 2,000 – given what we're expecting for earnings – is just too high relative to where sales growth is…So, I don't see us hitting 2,000. Not this year…"
NO: “…Talking Numbers contributor Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson, thinks the charts disagree with Sanchez and 2,000 is more than a distinct possibility. "We are going to get there," says Ross. "And, it could be far sooner rather than later. It could be something we see by the first half or by the end of the summer perhaps. That's based purely on the technicals alone. As we know, price and value in this market are like two ships passing in the night – tangentially related at best."
VIX rose about 2% to 14.21.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose to 2.74%.
Both the VIX and the bond market showed some mild concern today, so perhaps the Ukraine situation is the worry. Cyclical stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 for every period from 10-days to 100-days. Investors currently see no chance of recession.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)