“Markets could soon face a fall of up to 60 percent, two experts told CNBC on Wednesday…A jolt to international confidence in central banks will lead to a 30 to 60 percent market decline, David Tice, president of Tice Capital and founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, told CNBC's "Power Lunch…The Fed's low interest rates could bring a ‘scary’ 50-60 percent market correction, said technical analyst Abigail Doolittle…I think it could come on a crash similar to what happened in 2007," Doolittle, the founder of Peak Theories Research, said on ‘Squawk Box’.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101950613
Yes, it could happen, but the timing may be more than a year away if it occurs at all. My guess is that such a crash is only likely after the FED begins raising interest rates sometime in 2015.
CRACKS IN THE UPTREND – A FEW, BUT DON’T WORRY; BE HAPPY
RSI (14-day SMA) was 93 Wednesday at the close. 70 is overbought for this indicator. 8 out of the last 10-days have been UP for
the S&P 500 so a down day would not be a surprise tomorrow. Internals
remained neutral today. I’ll be surprised if the markets can get through
October without some sort of correction, at least in the 10% area.
On the bull side there was some late-day buying today and
that broke a recent trend of late day selling.
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was
UP one-tenth of 1-point, remaining essentially unchanged at 2000 (rounded). VIX was UP about 1.3% to 11.78.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was down slightly to 2.36% at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried.
Volume remains low; it was about 17% below the average
for the month.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) rose slightly to 59% at the close Wednesday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +145
(It was +171 Tuesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +10.
In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by
10 each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market because the
smoothed 10-dMA of UP volume continues to fall.
This may be the result of low volume overall since that means that
Up-volume is also low, rather than a meaningful indicator. All other Internals look good.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM is
HOLD. All indicators are neutral. 
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals
both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy
signal.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ESV has successfully tested its recent low as selling has declined at the low. Dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is limited. I rate it BUY again even though you can find a lot of negative talk about the drillers.
