Monday, August 11, 2014

Small Caps…Another Financial Crisis…Presidential Cycle Suggests Correction

MARKET REPORT
I’ll post the Market Report and market analysis after the close. Here’s some news…
 
SMALL CAPS SET FOR A FALL (WSJ)
“Fund manager Joel Greenblatt says that, historically, when small company stocks have been as expensive as they are now, they have delivered negative returns.” Video at…
http://live.wsj.com/video/small-cap-stocks-priced-for-a-fall/50364ABE-26D8-48A7-B546-BF26E6C906AC.html?mod=WSJ_article_outbrain&obref=obnetwork#!50364ABE-26D8-48A7-B546-BF26E6C906AC
 
RISKING ANOTHER FINANCIAL CRSIS
“The world is at risk of another financial crisis as monetary stimulus in developed economies encourages investors to take risks and boost asset prices, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan [former International Monetary Fund chief economist] said in two interviews. “We are taking a greater chance of having another crash at a time when the world is less capable of bearing the cost,” Rajan told the Central Banking Journal…Rajan has been a vocal critic of developed nations’ monetary policies and their impact on the rest of the world.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/rajan-sees-risk-of-new-crisis-on-loose-policy-cb-journal-says.html
 
TYPICAL PRESIDENTIAL 2ND TERM, 3RD YEAR, PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE (Financial Sense)

Tom McCLellan posted the above chart and commentary at Financial Sense.  Chart and discussion from…
http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u758/images/2014/SPX-vs-2-PCPs-Aug-2014.jpg
The S&P 500 black line in the chart above shows current conditions while the Red line is the typical chart based on History.  Will History prevail? I don't know; a correction seems slightly more likely than another bounce as has been the case thru 2013 and 2014.
 
One positive story…
BULL MARKET IS NOT OVER (Yahoo Finance)
“…the laundry list of concerns cited by bears today aren’t rally killers. ‘Bull markets don’t end because of age. They don’t end because of exogenous political events. They end in anticipation of a recession.’ [said - Hank Smith of Haverford Trust]…If Smith is correct then anytime starting about now would be a good point at which to start putting extra cash to work in stocks.” Commentary at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/-bull-markets-don-t-die-of-old-age---time-to-start-buying-192326664.html