Thursday, August 28, 2014

GDP UP…Jobless Claims Down…Stock Market Nearing a Top (Gee, we’ve heard that before!)

MARKET REPORT
I’ll post the daily Stock Market Report and Market Analysis after the close. Here’s some news...
 
GDP UP (Forbes)
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of real gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2014 — covering April, May and June of this year. The release showed output in the U.S. increasing at an annual rate of 4.2%. This is relative to the first quarter when real GDP declined a sharp 2.1%... “I’ll take it,” said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America…of the 4.2% growth in a call following the release. But North warns GDP watchers should not get too excited. The revisions reveled “nothing earth shattering.” Story at…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthasharf/2014/08/28/u-s-gdp-grew-4-2-in-the-second-quarter-2013-up-from-first-estimate/

JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a second straight week last week, underscoring the strengthening labor market fundamentals. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000 for the week ended Aug. 23, the Labor Department said on Thursday… Job growth has topped 200,000 for six consecutive months, a stretch last seen in 1997…” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0GS1G220140828

STOCK MARKET NEARING A TOP (CNBC)
“The relationship between Americans' wages and the stock market's total value could be signaling a peak, TrimTabs Investment Research Chairman Charles Biderman told CNBC on Thursday. But in the near-term, he's still bullish—saying the market is "rigged because of zero interest rates."… Meanwhile, researchers at Rutgers University said they found that Americans are more anxious about the economy now than they were right after the Great Recession ended.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101954407
When everyone thinks the stock market is going to do one thing, it does another.  The recent calls for a major crash above (and yesterday by Tice and Doolittle) mean a crash is less likely.  A correction in the 10% range is expected. Crash?...possible, but not likely right now.