“The number of Americans who applied for unemployment
benefits climbed by 22,000 to a one-month high of 259,000 in late January, but
the level of layoffs remained extremely low.” Story at…
LEI (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased
0.5 percent in December to 124.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase
in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October. "The U.S. Leading
Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue
growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early
months of this year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles
and Growth Research at The Conference Board.” Press release at…
HOME SALES (MarketWatch)
“Sales of newly constructed homes plunged in December as
the housing market’s recovery sputtered. New-home sales declined to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 2297.
-VIX dropped about 0.4% to 10.77
near the close. (VIX hasn’t been this low since July of 2014. The lack of fear
is making me afraid – a pullback seems likely, but I have been saying that for
a month.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.501%.
Short-term indicators continue to show that the market is
stretched, but they have improved over the last week or so. Overall my opinion
hasn’t changed; I think the upside potential is limited while the downside risk
remains fairly high, at least for a short-term pullback. I remain a short-term
bear and a long-term bull.
CURRENT RANKING OF 11 ETFs (Ranked Daily)*
#1 RANK for the past 56-days: Financial Select Sector
SPDR ETF (XLF).
Here’s today’s complete result of the ETF Ranking.
I would avoid IBB and XLV; currently their 120-dMAs are
declining.
*For background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page
at…
TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
Rydex 2x Short S&P 500 (RYTPX): Established 6 Dec.
2x Short S&P 500 (SDS): Established 16 Dec.
Long Volatility ETN (VXX): Established 6 Jan 2017.
NET:
Now I wish I had tightened trading rules sooner. I am
underwater again!
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 53.1%. (55.3% prior trading-day.) A number above 50% is
usually BULLISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 52.8%. (A
value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: Rose from +74 to +44 (percentage
calculation method adjusted to fit McClellan’s values).
-New-highs minus new-lows: +253
(It was +320 prior trading day.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +15. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 15
each day.
Market Internals switched
to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were
neutral. The Price indicator was positive.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep 2016 in my long-term
accounts.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a conservative retiree allocation.
