“In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on
Wednesday. After its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee
unanimously voted to hold the federal funds rate between 0.75% and 1.00%,
citing slowing economic growth... ‘The Committee views the slowing in
growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory’” Story at…
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP Research Inst)
Private-sector employment increased by 263,000 from
February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis.” Press release available at…
ISM SERVICES (ISM)
"The NMI® registered
57.5 percent, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the March reading of
55.2 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector
at a faster rate.” Press release at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Fuelfix.com)
“The nation’s supply of commercial crude dipped slightly
by 900,000 barrels, potentially slowing some of the fears of U.S. shale oil
production growing too quickly and contributing to another global glut. U.S.
inventories of refined gasoline did grow a little by 200,000 barrels…” Story
at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2388.
-VIX rose about 1% to 10.68 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.319%.
Markets are a little less bullish, but still OK:
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was at +7 today vs. +9
yesterday. Longer term the indicators continue to improve.
-Money Trend is still moving up.
-The Late-day action (Smart Money) was up today and it
continues to trend higher.
-Sentiment has slipped to a neutral position.
I remain bullish short-term and cautiously bullish longer
term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is falling.
No.1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term
trading for a while. Long is the call
now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals are
neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, Price was positive; Sentiment, Volume &
VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation.
