Wednesday, May 3, 2017
FOMC Rate Decision … ADP Employment … ISM Services … Crude Inventories … Market Analysis … Trading ETFs and ETF Ranking
FOMC RATE DECISION (Yahoo Finance)
There have been no long-term Buy or Sell signals in a while. The last signal was a BUY on 23 February and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.
“In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. After its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to hold the federal funds rate between 0.75% and 1.00%, citing slowing economic growth... ‘The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory’” Story at…
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP Research Inst)
Private-sector employment increased by 263,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis.” Press release available at…
ISM SERVICES (ISM)
"The NMI® registered 57.5 percent, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the March reading of 55.2 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate.” Press release at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Fuelfix.com)
“The nation’s supply of commercial crude dipped slightly by 900,000 barrels, potentially slowing some of the fears of U.S. shale oil production growing too quickly and contributing to another global glut. U.S. inventories of refined gasoline did grow a little by 200,000 barrels…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2388.
-VIX rose about 1% to 10.68 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.319%.
Markets are a little less bullish, but still OK:
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was at +7 today vs. +9 yesterday. Longer term the indicators continue to improve.
-Money Trend is still moving up.
-The Late-day action (Smart Money) was up today and it continues to trend higher.
-Sentiment has slipped to a neutral position.
I remain bullish short-term and cautiously bullish longer term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is falling.
No.1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term trading for a while. Long is the call now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals are neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, Price was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation.