Thursday, May 4, 2017
Jobless Claims … Factory Orders … Market Analysis … Trading ETFs and ETF Ranking
There have been no long-term Buy or Sell signals in a while. The last signal was a BUY on 23 February and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.
Initial claims for U.S. unemployment-insurance benefits fell sharply in the latest week signaling a continued strong labor market, according to government data released Thursday. The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment-insurance benefits fell by 19,000 to 238,000 in the week that ended April 29…” Story at…
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods increased for a fourth straight month in March and orders for capital equipment were stronger than previously reported, pointing to a sustained recovery in the manufacturing sector. Factory goods orders rose 0.2 percent…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.1% to 2390.
-VIX fell about 2% to 10.46 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.358%.
Markets are a little less bullish, but still OK:
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was at 0 today vs. +7 yesterday. Longer term the indicators continue to improve so no need to worry yet.
-The Late-day action (Smart Money) was up today and it continues to trend higher. Looks like the Pros are optimistic.
-Money Trend topped and is moving down, but longer-term, smoothed-values are still bullish so this perhaps should be a neutral sign.
-Sentiment is very close to a sell signal.
-The 10-dMA of percentage of stocks advancing has dropped from 57% (4-days ago) to 51.5% today.
-The chart isn’t looking so great since the S&P 500 is basically flat for the last 8-days.
Bear signs aren’t very bearish. I remain bullish short-term and cautiously bullish longer term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is falling.
No.1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term trading for a while. Long is the call now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals are neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested.