Initial claims for U.S. unemployment-insurance benefits
fell sharply in the latest week signaling a continued strong labor market,
according to government data released Thursday. The number of people who
applied for U.S. unemployment-insurance benefits fell by 19,000 to 238,000 in
the week that ended April 29…” Story at…
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods increased for a fourth
straight month in March and orders for capital equipment were stronger than
previously reported, pointing to a sustained recovery in the manufacturing
sector. Factory goods orders rose 0.2 percent…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.1% to 2390.
-VIX fell about 2% to 10.46 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.358%.
Markets are a little less bullish, but still OK:
Bull signs:
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was at 0 today vs. +7 yesterday.
Longer term the indicators continue to improve so no need to worry yet.
-The Late-day action (Smart Money) was up today and it
continues to trend higher. Looks like the Pros are optimistic.
Bear Signs:
-Money Trend topped and is moving down, but longer-term, smoothed-values are still bullish so this perhaps should be a neutral sign.
-Sentiment is very close to a sell signal.
-The 10-dMA of percentage of stocks advancing has dropped
from 57% (4-days ago) to 51.5% today.
-The chart isn’t looking so great since the S&P 500
is basically flat for the last 8-days.
Bear signs aren’t very bearish. I remain bullish short-term
and cautiously bullish longer term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is falling.
No.1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term
trading for a while. Long is the call
now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
are neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX
indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested.
