“Job creation in April bounced back from a disappointing
March, with nonfarm payrolls growing by 211,000 while the unemployment rate
fell to 4.4 percent, its lowest since May 2007.” Story at…
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (XM)
“Looking at
average hourly earnings, those came in at a 0.3% growth rate as expected.
Hourly earnings for March were revised down to 0.1% from the previous 0.2%.” Story at…
My cmt: Overall the
news was good for the economy. This is
the sort of good news that worries the markets because the FED is more likely
to raise rates at the next meeting. (Actually, that’s what the markets expect.)
The futures were down at the release, but the markets shrugged it off later in
the day.
RECESSION? – NAH: THE BIG FOUR (Advisor Perspectives)
“There is…a general belief that there are four big
indicators that the [NBER] committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification
process. They are: Nonfarm Employment; Industrial Production; Real Retail
Sales; and Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts)”
(The following chart is a composite of the “Big Four”
indicators from dShort.com.)
Additional charts and commentary at…
My cmt: It would take a steep drop to make us worry about
recession; no recession is indicated by the chart above.
CHART POINTS TO 2500 (CNBC)
“…with another rise in the VXV-VIX ratio in April,
Suttmeier (BoA Technician) thinks that the trend "favors a breakout
through 2,400…[and] could run up as high as 2,500 in the short term.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 2399.
-VIX rose about 0.75% to 10.56 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to
2.351%.
Woo woo! The Bulls are back today.
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was at +4 today vs. 0 yesterday.
Longer term, the indicators continue to improve.
-The Late-day action (Smart Money) was strongly up today
and it continues to trend higher. The Pros are optimistic.
-The 10-dMA of percentage of stocks advancing bounced up
to 54.1% today – up from 51.5% yesterday.
Sentiment (%-bulls) is giving a sell signal, but
sentiment alone is not a great timing indicator. I remain bullish short-term
and cautiously bullish longer term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is falling.
No.1 remains Technology (XLK). I continue to hold the
XLK.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term
trading for a while. Long is the call
now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
are neutral on the market, but they improved significantly today.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, Price was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume
& VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested.
