“Orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods posted the
biggest gain in nearly three years last month, pulled up by a surge in demand
for civilian aircraft... orders for durable goods — which are meant to last at
least three years — climbed 6.5% in June…” Story at….
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
rebounded from a three-month low last week, but remained below a level
consistent with a tightening labor market. Initial claims for state
unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 244,000 for the
week ended July 22…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2475.
-VIX was up about 5% to 10.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.298%.
RSI is the indicator that is screaming sell right
now. In the short-term, it’s going to
take another negative signal to get us worried about a pullback.
The call is NEUTRAL on a short-term basis. Longer-term,
I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more in late-summer and into early fall,
but I remain fully invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Today, Biotech (IBB) ETF remains #1. I would avoid XLE;
its 120-day moving average is still falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
I take a portion of my cash and apply it strategically to
improve returns in cash. My short-term trading has never been about
get-rich-quick.
I haven’t been doing much in the trading portfolio –
too busy to worry about it; but the call is now NEUTRAL as noted above.
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.”
– D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major
bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established.
Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is
truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's
errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
neutral on the market; the 10-day advancing volume is now falling.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price, Sentiment, Volume, & VIX indicators
were neutral. (With VIX recently below 10
for a couple of days (May and June, and now July), VIX may be prone to
incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move
up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index
may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.)
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday,
24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
