The Federal Reserve says a shortage of qualified workers
in the U.S. has “limited” hiring, but there’s little evidence firms are raising
wages to attract jobseekers, according to the central bank’s latest deep dive on the economy. The so-called
Beige Book, the Fed’s regular survey of business conditions around the country,
said economic growth was “slight to moderate” from late May through June.”
Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“U.S. crude oil inventories last week dropped the most in ten months,
falling more than expected as imports declined and refining rates rose, while
gasoline stocks decreased…” Story at…
YELLEN DOVISH COMMENTS (CNBC)
“…Fed Chair
Janet Yellen's testimony was taken to mean the central bank
won't be hiking rates all that much…The testimony released for Yellen's appearance before
a House committee Wednesday morning highlighted that the Federal Reservebelieves it
is not that far from the neutral rate.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.7% to 2443.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 10.3.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.313%.
Bull signs…The 5-10-20 Timer system switched to buy since
the 5-dEMA and the 10-dEMA are now higher than the 20-dEMA; New-highs are
improving; Market Internals have improved, but not by much.
On the bearish side…Bollinger Bands are tight with the
S&P 500 Index very close to the upper band; smoothed up-volume is falling; late-day-action
(Smart Money) suggests the Pros are still in a cautious mode.
At this point, we’re still sitting close to neutral short-term,
but I’m guessing new-highs may be in store for the Index.
Longer-term, I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more in
late-summer and into early fall.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Today US Biotechnology (IBB) was #1, but Aerospace and
Defense (ITA) was close enough to be tied for 1st.
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
Neutral with no positions recommended. - 5/24/2017
thru present.
I am still not bullish enough to take a long position in
the trading portfolio.
-“In a
bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major
bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established.
Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is
truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's
errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou
Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, Sentiment, Price, Volume, & VIX indicators
were neutral. (With VIX recently below 10
for a couple of days (May and June), VIX may be prone to incorrect signals.
Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may just signal
normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator,
VIX is out of the picture for a while.)
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday,
24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
