“Manufacturers reported solid, but slowing, growth in
July, according to data released Thursday. The Philadelphia Federal
Reserve said its manufacturing survey in July fell to 19.5…” Story
at…
This was the slowest growth this year, but it is still
growth.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
fell more than expected last week, touching its lowest level in nearly five
months, suggesting strong job gains that should continue to underpin economic
growth.” Story at…
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (MarketWatch)
“A broad measure of how well the U.S. economy is
performing surged in June after a strong gain in May, suggesting growth could
speed up in the months ahead. The leading economic index jumped 0.6% last
month…” Story at…
CHRIS PUPLAVA ON “PREPARING FOR THE END GAME” (Financial
Sense)
“…We are not the only ones gradually becoming more
“fearful” by beginning to reduce the risk of our client’s assets. As mentioned
above, the world’s largest hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, says
to start dancing closer to the exit with an eye on the tea leaves… Daniel
Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO, who took over the reins from Bill
Gross, said they are beginning to shift their bond fund to higher quality
assets like US Treasuries while selling richly-valued US corporate
bonds…JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chairman Jamie Dimon said the unwinding of
central bank bond-buying programs is an unprecedented challenge that may be
more disruptive than people think.” Commentary, charts and analysis at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 9.58, but remains historically
near extreme lows.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.265%.
VIX remains at extreme lows. One would need to go all the
way back to about 6-months before the Financial Crisis in 2007 to find VIX this
low. This is signaling extreme complacency and is cautionary for the markets.
My sum of 17-indicators jumped up today giving a bullish
reading. Market Internals are now positive. New-highs look good. Unfortunately
the sky is not completely blue.
Late-day action was down and that’s a bearish sign. More worrying though, RSI and Bollinger Bands
are getting stretched suggesting, once again, that the market may soon pause or
retreat some. Overall though, these
signs are not signaling short-term sell at this point.
It looks like the call is LONG on a short-term basis based
on the chart. Longer-term, I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more in
late-summer and into early fall, but I remain fully invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Today, Biotech (IBB) ETFs was #1.
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is still
falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
I take a portion of my cash and apply it strategically to
improve returns in cash. My short-term trading has never been about get-rich-quick.
Neutral, with no positions recommended. -
5/24/2017 thru present.
I haven’t been doing much in the trading portfolio – too
busy to worry about it.
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.”
– D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major
bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established.
Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is
truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's
errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Sentiment, Price, Volume, & VIX indicators
were neutral. (With VIX recently below 10
for a couple of days (May and June, and now July), VIX may be prone to
incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move
up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index
may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.)
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday,
24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
