“U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to a record in July,
indicating resilient demand for workers, Labor Department figures showed on
Tuesday.” Story at…
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM REMAINS HIGH (ABABanking Journal)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked upwards to
105.3, its highest reading since February.” Story at…
https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2017/09/small-business-optimism-remained-historically-high-in-august/
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING (RIA)
“For now, the “bullish case” remains alive and well. The
media will go on berating those heretics who dare to point out the risks that
prevail. However, the one simple truth is “this time is indeed different.” When the crash ultimately
comes the reasons will be different than they were in the past – only the
outcome will remain same.” – Lance Roberts. Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 2496 another all-time
high.
-VIX was down about 1% to 10.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.166%.
Bollinger Bands signaled overbought today. RSI is
elevated, but not yet overbought. The old standby advance-decline ratio remains
overbought. The sum of 17-indicators seems to be stalling out so this one needs
to be watched. Advancing volume is headed up and that’s a positive. Money Trend
is flat and that’s a neutral indication. Smart Money, based on late day action,
has flattened out giving a neutral indication. New-high/new-low data looks
good.
Overall the short-term indicators were Bullish to neutral
today.
Longer-term, I’m cautiously bullish; I will worry more if
the numbers deteriorate, but I remain fully invested. There isn’t any news now
that signals a bear market and long-term indicators remain neutral.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Biotechnology (IBB) remained #1 today. Avoid XLE; its
120-day moving average is falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
LONG
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, Price, Sentiment,
VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a
couple of days (May, June, July and August), VIX may be prone to incorrect
signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but
that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both
rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March
2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder
is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
